Vagaries' much awaited annual Monsoon Watch 2025 will be published on 8th April ..at 5 pm

All India Meteorological Details for 5th April

Hottest Day : Barmer 43.6°c 

Coolest Day: Gulmarg 11.5°c

Hottest Night: Amini Divi 28.3°c, Chennai (Nunga) 27.6°c

Coldest Night: Gulmarg 1.4°c

☔Wettes6t : Kozhipurvilai (T.N) 19 cms.

4th April Post...(Maharashtra outlook Below)

Come April and The Heat is on....Delhi: expect first 40°c by 7th April which if happens will be 5°c above normal !

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Outlook for Weekend 5th/6th/7th.

No (Extra) Alert for Maharashtra!

Pune: Current rain spell over...now  see days gradually getting hotter...with the first 40°c by 7th April. Nights around 20/21°c due to clear skies at night.

Mumbai : Hazy  skies, and humid day. With the day warming up to 36°c, the " real Feel" will be 38°c.

AQI expected to be moderate between 140-170.

Mahabaleshwar: Clear skies, day staying around 30°c with  pleasant breeze.

Jalgaon: Expected to get very hot and touch 40/41°c this weekend.

Rain on 3rd April...

 

 3rd April 

2nd April Post 

An Upper Air Circulation

and East-West wind interaction over Central Maharshtra,persisting on 2nd 

caused cloudiness and light too moderate rains in Maharshtra. Madhya Maharshtra receieved moderate rains, with Sangli getting 34 mms (1/4), Mahabaleshwar 5 mms, Kolhapur 3 mms. 

Several parts of Pune got rain showers.

The prevailing conditions are favorable circulation and LWD mentioned is likely to persist  for 1 more day. 

Weekend (3rd/4th/5th):

Mumbai: Mumbai is getting cloudy and dull weather. Light negligible drizzles  (Traces) were experienced in some parts.

Expect cloudy skies and light drizzle in parts of Mumbai  Humidity increasing, night temperatures to be warm and stuffy at 25c. Days will be humid at 35c. 

We can expect a "comforting" Sea Breeze after Friday. But the humidity will make the "Real Feel" temperatures at 38c.

Pune: Will see thunder showers for 2 more days, 3rd and 4th, being in the line of the LWD (Line of Wind Discontinuity).

Day temperature  will be bit lower at 34/35c. 

Mahabaleshwar will get thundershowers on Thursday 3rd...with a cool day.

Sambhajinagar: 3rd can see a possible Thunder shower by evening. Days after Friday wall be partly cloudy at 35/36c...and nights pleasant at 21c

Mumbai Heat Statistics: 

February 2025: 26th touched 38.7c (+ 5.9c)...Hottest in 5 years. 

All Time record for February is 39.6c in 1966.

March 2025: 11th March touched 39.2c.

All Time March Record is 41.7c in 1956.

In Mumbai, days when the maximum temperature exceeds 37 degrees Celsius, or settles between 4.5 degrees Celsius to 6.4 degrees Celsius above normal, it is classified as a heatwave.

A severe, or extreme heatwave, occurs when the daytime maximum temperature settles at 6.5 degrees above normal or more. 

Based on an analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the recently unveiled Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP) shows that the city has experienced a total of 13 heatwaves since 1977. 

More than half of these (8) occurred in the last 15 years, in line with the rising annual temperatures in Mumbai. IMD data indicates that between 1973 and 2020, the city has grown warmer by 0.25 degrees Celsius each decade.

 Mumbai saw heatwave events in 1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, 1995, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2014 and 2018. Severe heatwaves occurred in 2004, 2011,  March 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.

Mumbai’s average annual temperature has remained consistently above normal for the last 16 years, and data shows that the city is getting hotter. Between 1973 and 1998, the annual mean temperature of the city showed an average departure from normal of +0.004 degrees Celsius per year, which rose to +0.011 degrees Celsius per year between 1999 and 2008, and then further to +0.042 degrees Celsius/year between 2009 and 2020.

Actually for Mumbai, More stress is on Urban Heat islands Effect :

“The overall air temperature trend highlights warming related to global climate change, whereas the trend of increase in late evening and night-time temperature points to a much more localized phenomenon associated with city-scale urbanization and development. The long-term trends of increasing night-time and evening temperatures correspond well with the concept of urban expansion, whereas the rise in post-monsoon and winter temperature trends point to the post-monsoon heat phenomenon,” the MCAP states, though the raw data has not been provided.

India Heat Waves

2101-2023..Heat Wave Days 👇

Min wise record breaking morning temp (27/02/2025)

Dehradun 16.7°C (New ATR)

Sriganganagar 18.0°C New ATR

Old ATR 16.9°C (2021)

Amritsar 17.4°C 

Matched with ATR 17.4°C (2021)

Safdarjung, Delhi 19.5°C

Old ATR 17.2°C (2015)

Ambala 18.2°C (New ATR)

Rohtak 18.0°C (New ATR)

Bikaner 21.4°C (2nd ATR)

Churu 19.8°C (2nd ATR)

Palam, Delhi 19.1°C (2nd ATR)

Chandigarh 18.5°C (2nd ATR)

Hisar 18.3°C (2nd ATR)

Meerut 16.8°C (2nd ATR)

Vagaries 

 Outlook For Next week: 31st March - 3rd April:

31st March: 

1. Mumbai: Partly cloudy and warm at 35c...Night stuffy and Humid at 24c. ⛅

2. Pune: Partly cloudy and warm at 36c. ⛅

1st/2nd April: 

1.Mumbai: Partly Cloudy and more cloudiness by evening. Warm stuffy Night. Light drizzles in some parts. ☔

Thane, Panvel, Navi Mumbai , Badlapur and Karjat  can get some thundershowers.  ⛈

2.Pune: Cloudy , getting fully overcast by Evening. Light to moderate rains or thundershowers.

3rd April: 

1.Mumbai: Sunny and warm at 35c...warm night at 25c.

2.Pune: Some clouds and Hot at 37c. Warm Night at 23c.

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Mahabaleshwar: Moderate rainfall on 1st/2nd/3rd. Days cool at28c...Night around 19c.