vagaries of the weather ©

2012-02-02T00:52:00.001+05:30

Mumbai is heating up as estimated in vagaries'weekly forecast put up last Sunday (Removed since to give priority to note on GW).
In the last 2 days, Mumbai has recorded 34c, as forecasted, (Reaching 35c on Friday), and Pune shooting up to 31c (estimated 32c). Delhi reached the 24c. Kolkata is now 25/26c against 27c estimated.

Across the border, Karachi has shot to 28/29c and Sukkur reaches 26c.

But, all this till Friday, when F-1 reaches the sub-continent. Week ends will start cooling again.
Friday, starting with the extreme North, precipitation will move eastwards into the plains of the regions, and bring hail on Sunday.
Rains may just avoid Delhi. But will cool down from Saturday.

Maximum precipitation effect in India will be on Sunday.

The system,F-1, slides into Nepal on Monday, and with good SE moisture feeding, brings fairly heavy rains along the length of the country.
Kathmandu can expect overcast conditions on Monday and Tuesday, with rains.Drop in day temperatures and rise in night expected.

Substantial cooling returns to the plains and Northern Indian regions from Sunday, and in western India from Monday.

Mumbai and Pune will see the temperatures declining from Sunday night, as the winds return to the N direction.

We can expect light rainfall in South T.N. on Monday.

Those Interested in Mumbai lows this week, please read my views on
Mumbai Page.

Sorry No postings since Sunday as I was trekking and Birding in the Thattekad Sanctuary (Kerala) and Birding in Evrikulam National Park (Munnar, Kerala) last 5 days. Next Posting will be up on Thursday ,2nd, evening.

2012-01-28T19:44:00.001+05:30

Who's afraid of Global Warming ?

WMO announced that last year was in the top ten hottest years in the Earth's history...or, lets put it in another way, last year was the coolest amongst the top ten hottest years in the Earth's history.
Sounds totally different, doesn't it ?

Earth in a cooling period, says a prominent scientist

Despite the fact that the IPCC predicted that there was going to be a one degree rise of temperature by 2010, it actually got cooler..and its showing, every year.
The cooling effect is observed and measured in spite of anomallies in checking data and closing down of important staions in the colder regions of the world.
It all depends on how a thing is projected...and its the same story with GW...and ,according to the reply put up by my friend Rajan on vagaries, it has something to do with the ban on weather forecasting !

There are no isolated cases, but its persistent since the last 5-10 years at least !And this year is no exception...

What's this ?

Its 2 feet of snow in Seattle !

And an Artic Seal showed up in Seattle..Appears to be only the second ribbon seal on record to make it so far south.It was a ribbon seal, an Arctic species that spends most of its life swimming the frigid waters off Alaska and Russia.

This is the Killimanjaro Story: Some scientists and environmental activists claim that the mountain’s glaciers could disappear perhaps before the end of the decade, another victim of rising global temperatures.
Athumani Juma, a guide who’s been hiking Mount Kilimanjaro for the past seven years, laughed when asked about the likelihood that Kilimanjaro’s snowcap would soon disappear.
The glaciers are no longer are shrinking, but growing, Juma replied.“Before, we were seeing glaciers melting,” “But from 2010 to now, we have been seeing new glaciers.”

And what's this story from the Middle East ? Middle East ? yes !: Blizzard in northern Israel shuts down Hermon ski resort
Snow fell fast and thick all over the Golan Heights and Mt. Hermon on Sunday, forcing closure of the Mount Hermon ski resort.

Snow also reached the West Bank, where Hebron and the surrounding areas experienced snowfall, which, according to Palestinian reports, caused heavy traffic jams.

From Rajan's blog we see Mid Summer snow in New Zealand...read directly here.

And our own region, the Sub-continent.
Lows of -33c in Darbuk and Shyok (Ladakh).
Leh has plummeted to -22c and Gulmarg -17c this year. Good lows to indiacate a severe winter.These figuresare not uncommon, and they it continue year after year.Warming has not increased nor has it ceased to double freeze.
The southern regions of India showed records go tumbling. Belagaum, Mysore and Medikeri and Adilabad all touched all time lows.There is an unoficial record of a 0c in A.P. However, we know for sure of Adilabad at 3.7c, and Vagaries had put up a pic of Ooty touching 0c some time in December.

What about the "first time" snowfall in Punjab? and Kangra. And snow in the lower reaches of H.P? With Abu freezing at -2.2c ?
Does this mean that once the warmists finish massaging the numbers, this will still be one of the warmest years on record.

Dr Don Easterbrook is a professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University. He holds a bachelor’s degree, master’s degree and PhD in geology, and has studied climate change for 50 years. He is nationally known as a climate-change skeptic

In an interview with Josh Holloway, Easterbrook makes it clear that he believes the Earth is now cooling.

"We’ve had 27 climate changes in the last 400 years: warm, cold, warm, cold. There have been four in this past century that have nothing to do with CO2, because CO2 wasn’t a factor hundreds of thousands of years ago. We know that those are not at all related to CO2. So why would we expect climate change today to be related to CO2?"

The bottom line is.. that global warming ended in 1998. We’ve had no global warming above the temperatures of 1998 since then — despite the fact that the U.N. group Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that there was going to be a one degree rise of temperature by 2010, it actually got cooler.

Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization that said that 2011 ‘ranked tenth among the top ten warm years.’ “Why couldn’t they say it was the coolest of the top ten warm years?" asks Prof. Kelkar.

Every weather or climate event can be construed as evidence of climate change and then blamed on mankind.Warmists claimed "Heavy Snow In Oregon is 'a sure sign of global warming" -- 'In 2010, David Suzuki told us that the lack of snow in Vancouver was a sure sign of global warming'
Rebuttal: 'There are absolutely no weather conditions which could occur that would not be attributed to global warming. The climate science community has achieved the pinnacle of confirmation bias'

Land v/s Sea Temperatures:
Latest EU satellite measurements puts sea levels rise at meager 2.7 inch rate by 2100 and NOAA can't find global warming in the oceans.Per the trends, sea levels will be 2.7 inches higher in 2100 with ocean temperatures being lower by -0.5°C.
Professor Muller claimed that the BEST team’s data showed no evidence of a global slowdown in temperature rises. Muller said, “In our data, which is only on the land we see no evidence of its having slowed down. Now the evidence that shows that it has been stopped is a combination of land and ocean data. The oceans do not heat as much as the land because it absorbs more of the heat and when the data are combined with the land data the as other groups have shown it does seem to be levelling off. We have not seen that in the land data.”

“The global temperature standstill of the past decade is obvious in the HadCrut3 data, which is a combination of land and sea surface data. BEST is only land data from nearly 40,000 weather stations.”

But for the alarmists,all is not lost. I have something positive: "the supply of fossil fuels from the Middle East is going to get exhausted soon. That would obviously mean that the problem is solved, whether you want it or not [without fossil fuels, there would be little carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by man].
But that is not something that climate change enthusiasts are willing to consider. Anyone who raises questions like this is termed a heretic.”

2012-01-24T22:26:00.002+05:30

SHOULD WEATHER FORECASTERS NEED PERMISSION FROM THE GOVERNMENT?

This Law in S.Africa, I understand is considered as wrong Forecasting can be dangerous and damaging to the economy.

But, then, who and in which field can anyone give an accurate forecast. Can any financial wizard or top notch financial institution with hundreds of employees studying the economy and Company workings give an accurate estimate of the stock market ? Impossible ! In fact, most of the stock market forecasts are getting blown away.I actually once told a friend who is in the stock market -"My weather forecasting for tomorrow is much more accurate than your forecast of tomorrow's stocks"

And remember. there are thousands of small time investors who are depending (wrongly) on their stock investments. They can be absolutely mis-led with wrong estimates and guidance.
Can a doctor never go wrong in his diagnosis or health estimate ? And that too can be very very crtical to one's life !

But, as a citizen of a free country, one must be free to express his views in any field whatsoever.

As far as weather is concerned, the met office, and the met man does get the occasional flak. With a sneer we hear "Havn;t we heard that before ? "

Fact is, meteorology can never achieve the kind of exact precision which is the hallmark of other sciences. The blame for this lies not with us weathermen, but the nature of the object that we study. A closed system involves a limited range of variables, each of which can be controlled or replicated in laboratory conditions. Much of ordinary physics is a good example of it.

An open system, on the other hand, deals with realities and variables that are large and complex, and under constant change. None of which can be recreated, in laboratories. The subject-matter of meteorology - Sub-continental weather systems - is an instance of the latter. Denied the benefit of real-time experiments, meteorology depends on modelling and computer simulation for its research.

Today'Weather below....

Today's Weather:
J-4 arrives as a Secondary low over Sindh. As expected, some regions of Sindh recieved light rsains pushing up the night temperatures to some extent .(Point No. 2 of Vagaries' weekly forecast.
On Tuesday, light rains were recorded along the Sindh coast. Nokkundi measured 1.5 mms and Karachi and Sukkur both got traces of rains.Karachi saw a low of 12c (estimated was 15c) and Sukkur minimum was 8c (estimated 9c).

J-4 will enter India on Wednesday. Expected rainfall will be along the forecasted line.The rainfallfrom the system may get pushed Northwards by a UAC , which has formed over the Vidharbha/Chattisgarh region.

J-4 will precipitate rains in Kashmir and H.P. Cloudy weather and light rain could be expected in Punjab and Chandigarh on wed/Thurs. But Delhi region will be partly cloudy and no rains.

The UAC may bring light rains to Vidharbha and Chatiisgarh wed/Thurs. Rise in night temperatures for Nagpur.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy with a substantial rise in night temperatures.
Rise in night temperatures for Pune.

2012-01-22T19:59:00.002+05:30

A Cause of Concern for all Meteorologists:

SOUTH AFRICAN LAW WOULD JAIL METEOROLOGISTS FOR WEATHER FORECASTS...

Read these 2 Articles here and here. Please put up your views and comments too. Cast your opinion vote alongside on this page.

See International Page Update..Latest Snow Cover and Snow in the Sahara Desert – Video

Vagaries' Dubai Reader sends a pic ..Monday Forecast on Target !..See Inter Active Page.

2012-01-22T00:03:00.003+05:30

Click Here for Better View

Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 22nd to 29th January

1. J-3 will precipitate rain/snow over Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. and Northern regions of Pakistan on Sunday.

Light rains will also occur in coastal Sindh and upper Sindh on Sunday.

Light penetration of J-3 into Western regions of Nepal on Monday.

2.J-4, will bring light rains to coastal Sindh on Tuesday,24th. Rain/snow to Kashmir, H.P, moderate rains to Punjab (both) and Haryana and light rains in Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, 25th and 26th.Southern regions below Delhi latitude in India will be dry.

J-4 moves into entire Nepal on 27th, but holding medium strength.Eastern India will be dry in the week.

3. Dubai gets rains with strong winds on Monday, 23rd.

4. A weakish Easterly wave, remanant of a low in the far east, will bring light rains to coastal T.N. on Thursday and Friday. Some rains move inland into T.N. on Friday, 27th.

Mumbai: Sunday will be windy with sharp West winds, bringing in possibility of some clouding. Clear from Monday, as winds turn NW.Cooler week days with temperatures at night hovering around 15/16c (S'Cruz). However, a slight fall to 13/14c expected on the latter part of the week, from Thursday/Friday.

Delhi: Lows will be maintained around 5/6c till Wednesday, thanks to J-3. Thursday and Friday brings J-4, and will be partly cloudy with light rains in parts of NCR. Hence, naturally a rise in night temperatures. Republic day could be free from fog, and comfortable. Night temperatures are slated to fall from Friday 27th.

Kolkata: Almost constant weather Sunday thru Thursday. Clear with the tem range between 26c and 13. Cloudy on Friday with light rain by Saturday, 28th.(J-4 remnant effect). Rise in night temperatures from Thursday, going to 19c on Saturday, 27th.

Karachi: Light rains ceasing after Sunday. Night temperatures, around 15c till mid week.

Sukkur, will get light rains on Sunday, and, again some light precipitation on Tuesday (J-4). Temperatures around 9/10c till Tuesday, could also fall to 6c from Wednesday.

Last week's Weekly forecast put up on Sunday last had all the six (6) points accurately predicted.almost 95% accurate.

Please keep posting your local weather for correct assesment . Check Current Weather Page on Vagaries for your cities' current temperature.

2012-01-20T12:59:00.001+05:30

City Weekend Forecasts:

Mumbai: Westerly winds on Friday evening will bring in some clouds. Saturday/Sunday will be clear with return of NW winds. Day temperatures will be around 28c and night will be at 14c (S'Cruz) and 17/18c at Colaba.

Pune: Clear sky, but nights cool at around 10c for the weekend.

Delhi: J-3 will not have any precipitation effect on Delhi. But ,fog will reduce on Sunday morning. Clear sky will keep the night temperatures will be around 5/6c on the weekend.

Kolkata: North winds will change the week end weather, though Sunday evening will be calmer.Fog and clouds clearing by Saturday. Day temperatures will be around 24/25c. Nights, will fall from the current 18c to 14c levels.

Karachi: Saturday will see clouds with SW winds, and possibility of overnite light rains on Sunday. Night temperatures will again rise to 15/16c on the weekend.

Kathmandu: Weekend will be devoid of any rains. The temperature range will be 18c – 2c. Some clouding possible on Saturday.

2012-01-18T23:25:00.002+05:30

Check inter active page for Latest morning Delhi pic

La-Nina Report:

La Niña conditions remain.The Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions of the Pacific show NO CHANGE in the SSt in the last 15 days.The regions are at -0.9c below normal.

Indications of a mild La-Nina still persist. La Niña remains established over the Pacific Ocean,

Though some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values,implying some weakening of the La Niña event.

However, most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming spring season.

SOI Parameter:Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

As on 16th Jan, the latest SOI value was +12.8. Though down from 13.2,the last value, it is still above the La-Nina parameter.

MJO factor is weak currently ,right from the Western Pacific region upto the Bay equatorialregions. No signs of any strengthening of MJO next 15 days.

2012-01-17T22:04:00.004+05:30

The UAC in the Bay has fizzled out. A dominating "high" in the wake of the NEM withdrawal has brought cold to the Southern regions of India. Southern states of A.P, Karnataka, T.N. and to some extent Kerala, are experiancing a cold wave since Monday. yes, its a regular cold wave, with temperatures down by almost 9c from the normal.

Lowest record temperatures ever...

Medikeri went down to 4.8c,touching its lowest for Jan 4.8c reached in 1990 on 20th Jan. Belgaum saw 7c on Monday, its lowest ever, and Mysore dropped to 7.7c on Monday, its lowest ever for any month ! and Bangalore sees 12c after many years, Davengiri was at 7c today (Tuesday).

Chennai dips to 16.9c on Tuesday, very pleasant for the city. And Dharmapuri fell to 13c. Even Pondicherry saw 17c, 5c below normal! Ooty was at 4c on Tuesday.

Even in Kerala, Kochi (CIAL) dipped to 17c.(Lowest ever is 15.7c for Jan).

Srinagar, 16th Jan 2012:

Well, into Tuesday, and lets chase up vagaries' forecast and actual.

"J-2 will not survive beyond Tuesday"- certainly will not, in fact the system has fizzled out in the upper Himalayas.

"Central and Southern Pakistan will be cold again from Tuesday"-cold conditions have started, and Karachi has reached the predicted 9c, and Sukkur is 2c away from the 3c estimated, maybe tomorrow.

Cold will creep into Northern India plains from Tuesday night, in fact, expecting Delhi's 3c tonite itself! Delhi, after a foggy day, saw the high managing only 14c on Tuesday. Thick fog expected Wed morning.

Further fall in night temperatures tomorrow in Haryana, Punjab and North Rajasthan.

Other city night temperatures estimated in the weekly forecast should not become difficult to reach.

yesterday's Snowfall in Vaishno Devi..see video here.

Western Nepal had mild rain from J-2, and as expected, will not get any major benefit. (Neeraj was hoping for better precipitation). For Kathmandu, Fall in night temperatures estimated from Wednesday.

Mumbai was 15c at S'Cruz and 18c at Colaba on Tuesday. Expect partly cloudy conditions, and a fall to 13c next 2 days.

Pune has already slid down to the predicted 8c and Nagpur to 10c on Tuesday !

Kolkata nights have started rising as anticipitated, and reached 13c on Tuesday morning. Should be around 14/15c next few days, and cloudy from Friday.

J-3 is expected over Pakistan on Saturday,21st Jan. And will be covering the regions of upper Sindh, Punjab and Northern Pakistan with precipitation. Though not very strong ! Into Indian regions from Sunday,22nd.

2012-01-16T22:09:00.004+05:30

Reader sends Snow Pic from Dehra Dun ..see Inter active Page

We ( Pradeep and myself) have got some figures for the year 2011, but they are haphhazard..meaning few are till september end. We are trying to get the Hulikal post monsoon ,which may be in excess of Cherrapunji for 2011..but till then..

1st four all India Rainfall Toppers for 2011:

C'punji 8675 mms (12 months),

Hulikal 8311 mms (9 months),

Amboli 7874 mms (12 months),

Agumbe 7841 (12 months).

The World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, has recently issued its provisional statement on the status of the global climate. It says that the year 2011 ranked tenth among the top ten warm years.

Putting it differently, one can say that the year 2011 was the coolest of the top ten warm years.

Why this kolaveri di? (Quoting Prof Kelkar !)

2012-01-14T22:57:00.003+05:30

Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 15th to 22nd January.

click here for larger and better viewing.

Indicative low temperatures for the week are put up on the map with city location.

Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 15th to 22nd January.

1.J-2, mentioned in the last weekly report, has started becoming effective in the Northern most regions of the Sub-Continent from Saturday, 14th as predicted.

This system is expected to precipitate snow/rain over North Pakistan, North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday/Monday and Tuesday. Rain showers will occur in upper Sindh in Punjab plains in Pakistan on Sunday/Monday.

Isolated hailstorms will occur in the plains of Northern India, i.e. Punjab,Haryana and Western U.P. on Monday.

Precipitation spreads to Western Nepal on Monday. Kathmandu will be cloudy. Drop in night temperature on Wednesday/Thursday.

2. Cloudy conditions with strong west winds over remaining Sindh (Pakistan) and Rajasthan on Sunday.

3. J-2 will not survive beyond Tuesday.

Cold conditions due to NW winds in Saurashtra and Kutch on Monday 16th.

Tuesday /Wednesday cold wave with drop in night temperature by 3-5c in Northern, Central and Western India. Cold N/NW winds.

Lows expected during the week; Srinagar: -5c, Amritsar: 0c, Delhi: 3c, Mumbai:12c, Pune 8c, Nagpur: 10c.

Central and Southern Pakistan will be cold again from Tuesday, with night temperatures dropping to 0c in interior Sindh and Karachi could go down to 9c on Teusday/Wednesday. Sukkur could drop to 3c.

4. Monday,16th will see light rains in the central U.P. areas.

5.Dry weather throughout the week for Bengal. At the end of the week, on Saturday,21st, a trough will bring light rains to Chattisgarh, W.Bengal.

6. During the week,South will be dry. UAC over the Bay Islands will fizzle out.

A fresh J-3 is slated for 22nd January. But it is out of the preview of this forecast, and will be discussed later as and when.

Mumbai: Sun/Mon/Tues will be clear and with temperatures in the normal range i.e. 31c - 16c for S'Cruz and 32c -18c for Colaba. Tues/Wed/Thu will be windy (NW winds) and see a drop in temperatures, both day and night. Low will slide down to 12c in these nights at S'Cruz and 15c at Colaba.

Pune: Similarly, Pune, after remaimng at 12c in the start of the week, will slide down to 8/9c mid week.

The first edition of the Vagaries' Sunday Weekly Forecast put up last Sunday (8th Jan) was 90% accurate.

Check "Current weather" tab on Vagaries to see the real time temperatures of your city.

2012-01-13T12:08:00.002+05:30

As J-2 approaches the sub-continent, the night temperatures have shown a marginal rise. For India, the nights have become above normal starting from the extreme west.(Map).

In Pakistan, though the Northern regions are still showing cooler temperatures, the South and Central regions are slightly warmer. Karachi has risen to 13c and Sukkar to 10c.

J-2 will precipitate over Northern Pakistan, areas above the 30N line, from Saturday. Heavier in the Northern most regions, and tapering intensity Southwards.

On Saturday, the North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. would get snow/rains, and cloudy in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana. Heavier intensity would occur on Sunday in Kashmir and H.P. Snowfall would be in the range of 40-60 cms in Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Lahaul regions of H.P. Srinagar can expect snow too, as the day's maximum are below freezing since the last 5 days.

But, J-2 , it seems has a shorter life span, of just about 2/3 days. I would expect Pakistan to be clear from Monday 16th, and the North Indian regions would go dry from Tuesday. A prevailing "high" is likely to dis-integrate the system, allowing just about a day's precipitation in Utteranchal. Nepal would get its share only in the western regions. Kathmandu would be just about cloudy on Monday/Tuesday.

Westerly gusts on Sunday could bring clouds to Karachi.
Strong W winds are likely to sweep the lower Sindh (Pakistan) on Sunday 14th. From Monday, the winds will diverge to NW, bringing down the night temperatures.
Kutch and Saurashtra region of India will be swept by strong NW winds on Sunday and Monday.
Strong Northerly winds from Monday will bring a fall in temperatures in Northern plains of India, including Delhi.

Mumbai:

Friday 13th: Prevailing easterlies will keep the day temperature above 31c. Night will be around 16c (S'Cruz) and 18c at Colaba,

Saturday 14th: Very favourable winds for "Uttran" kite flying ! Though slightly dull in the morning, Winds changing to N/NW by afternoon, will bring the day temperature down to 29c, and night will be constant.

Sunday/Monday: Should see a fall in night temperatures to 13c at S'Cruz, possibly 12c on Tuesday morning (Monday night) . Day will be windy and cool.

Pune:

Day temperatures will rise to 30c, due to easterly winds for a couple of days.

Expect the night temperatures to be around 12c till Sunday. Monday /Tuesday could see a fall to 9c.

2012-01-10T23:37:00.003+05:30

Severe revival of Winter for the Northern hemisphere on the cards ?

A very interesting and informative write up on the present winter, and its reasoning by fellow meteorologist and friend Rajan.Highly recommended for complete reading !

Big pattern changes in winter coming? Arctic Oscillation Flips to Negative..read Rajan's Blog here.

On the same topic, Mark puts up something very interesting too !

HE GREAT FIGHTBACK OF OLD MAN WINTER MAY HAVE JUST BEGUN...Arctic Oscillation & North Atlantic Oscillation both suggest the coming of cold to the USA and much of Europe. Both may be shivering by Jan 20.

Cold wave has gripped the plains of Northern sub-continent region, with Amritsar dropping to -2c on Tuesday morning.Incidently, this was the projected temperature for Amritsar put up on Vagaries' weekly forecast map, alongwith the 4c for Delhi.

Mumbai and Pune, however,gave vagaries the slip while going down to 11c and 7c (vagaries had predicted 13c and 9c respectively).

Vijaywada on the east coast was lashed by heavy rains today, recording 73 mms. In Orissa, Bhubaneshwar measured 14 mms in the day.Rains will persisit till tomorrow in the region.

IMD has annonced the withdrawal of the NEM from the Southern states today, 10th Jan.

J-2, will precipitate rain/snow over the Northern/Central regions of Pakistan from Friday, 13th, and move into India the next day.

Karachi and Sukkar will have partly cloudy skies. Rise in temperatures till Sunday. Rain in some regions of upper Sindh.

Precipitation all over the north will be heavy on the weekend.Snowfall again in Kashmir and H.P.will disrupt traffic and vehicle movement.

At this stage,it is felt that further east, J-2 precipitation will not be effective beyond western most Nepal.

NW winds sweeping the plains of NW/Central and Western India will bring down the temperatures in the region from next Monday..shall discuss later.

Mumbai: A rise in night temperatures to around 16c (S'Cruz) from Thursday morning.Weekend will be mild and pleasant. Fall again from Monday night.

2012-01-09T23:19:00.002+05:30

Simla Mall

Expecting the projected cold wave in the plains of the sub continent to take effect with lower night tempertaures from Monday night thru Wednesday. Expecting low to dive to 3/4c in the NCR, and to 1c in Punjab (Amritsar, Adampur).

J-2 (W.D.) is expected to reach the Northern Pakistan region as on schedule, by Saturday 14th. J-2 is forecasted to be quite effctive and expect precipitation down south upto upper Sindh in Pakistan and Rajasthan in India.

Meanwhile, clouding will result in a rise in night temperatures for Coastal Sindh fom Tuesday.

General Information:

In the year 2011,the hottest temperature globally was 51.0c at Nawabshah, Pakistan on June 8.

The year's coldest temperature was - 78.5c at Russia's Vostok Antarctic research station on May 20.

The first week of 2012, saw the hottest temperature 44.7c at Ceduna, South Australia.

and the week's coldest temperature was -55.1c at Russia's Siberian outpost of Oimyakon.

2012-01-08T23:25:00.000+05:30

2012-01-08T08:51:00.001+05:30

New !! A weekly Forecast !

Vagaries Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week: 8th -15th January.

( This is put up gauging the current situation, and could be subject to changes during the week. Please give your approval/comments for changes or improvements. Will continue if ok with readers. In the absence of any feedback, shall discontinue this format.)

1. J-1 Moves away on Sunday. Decrease in rainfall from Northern regions. Expected to cover Nepal on Sunday/Monday. Major fog in Northern plains on Monday/Tuesday.

2. Persisting Rain over Orissa on Sunday and Monday.

3. Projected weak W.D. from Tuesday,10th staggers, but due to secondary, Sindh Pakistan will get light rains on 10/11th.

4. Next major W.D, (J-2) on Northern regions from Saturday,14th.

5. Cold Wave likely over Plains of NW, Western and Central India and Sindh Pakistan on Monday and Tuesday.

6. NEM likely to start retreat this week.

click here for better view

2012-01-07T22:19:00.001+05:30

Snowfall in the Lower regions of H.P...

Heavy snowfall is reported from Himachal Pradesh’s towns of Shimla , Kufri , Narkanda , Chail , Manali , Dharamsala, snowfall was unusually heavy in Dharamsala , Chamba and Dalhousie Saturday.

But, the surprise was the freak snowfall in the lower hills of the state after over half a century .

Residents of the temple towns of Chintpuri,Jwalaji and Kangra were shocked by the snowfall and sleet.The pilgrimage centre of Chintpurni saw snow after 1946 .

Nurpur had snow after 45 years. Shahpur and parts of Hamirpur among other places also experienced snowfall and sleet after many decades .

Even across the border in Pakistan,snowfall has been recorded after 6 years at Margalla Hills in Islamabad.The mountains including picnic point Pir Suhawa wore a white snow cover.

Temperatures likely to fall next 2 days in the plains and Central regions of India.

Cold and fall in temperatures likely in Sindh, but till 9th, after which temperatures will rise due to cloud cover over Sindh.

2012-01-05T20:48:00.002+05:30

J-1 has brought snow in the Kashmir and hills pf H.P. on Thursday. As on Thursday evening, it is overcat in these states, and Simla is experiencing sleet and light drizzles. Expecting Simla to see the first snowfall of this season tonite. Very likely that Srinagar too will get snowfall tonite.

Gulmarg had another day of snow, though light, with the day's high at -1c and low at -9c. Pahalgam had 6 mms of rain/snow.

A thick fog on Thursday morning brought down the visibility at New Delhi Safdarjung to 0 kms. The fog persisted till 10 am at the thickest.Moisture from J-1 and calm conditions helped in the fog forming over the entire region.Very thick fog is expected to set in again tonite, with major disruptions in transport and air traffic.Night temperatures are expected to fall from the current 10c level to 5c on Friday morning.

A weak W.D, is due to approach the Northern regions of Pakistan and the Northern states of India on Tuesday, 10th.Jan. An induced low, secondary, will travel eastwards alongwith the system, and bring rain too the Balochistan and Sindh regions on the 10th. Karachi can expect cloudy weather, with some precipitation on Tuesday, 10th.

Snow in Balochistan will bring down temperatures in Karachi and Sukkar from the 11th of Jan.

2012-01-03T23:20:00.003+05:30

A forecast Map for J-1 . Click here for larger View.

This season's first snowfall in Arunachal Pradesh occurred at the picturesque Tawang town situated 10,200 feet above sea level. The low temperature plummeting to -6c. “After recording the season's heavy snowfall since Sunday, life was thrown out of gear. Sela Pass at a height of nearly 13,700 feet on the Bomdila-Tawang road, was covered with three feet of snow in the last three days.Heavy snowfall blocked the road at Sela Pass yesterday.

On Sunday and Monday, the hills around Darjeeling received the forst snowfall. Tiger Hill had snow. Darjeeling had a high of 6.8c and a low of 1.5c on Tuesday.

Mumbai recorded a minimum of 17c at S'Cruz and 20c at Colaba. This was expected, as mentioned in the last blog article. However,the city will see night temperatures dropping from 7th Jan.

Pune will also feel the cold after 7th Jan.

Mark Vogan gives an outstanding account and details of Gale wind Storms in U.K., with videos...dont miss it, see here.
Astonishing 105 mph were recorded in Edinburgh's Blackford Hill and at Malin Head, Co Donegal while the Forth Road Bridge and Isle of Islay recorded gusts of 97 mph. This storm was BY FAR the worst of the season with large swathes of damage ranging from downed trees, snapped signs, lorries blown over to roofs being blown off....
100mph winds and blizzards batter Scotland
The River Clyde burst its banks in several places as severe weather hits the country on Tuesday...
Lorries blown over in 90mph winds force closure of M8 Kingston Bridge.....

2012-01-01T19:42:00.003+05:30

A trough extended from the low (remnant of "Thane") in the Arabian Sea to Central India, and then bent into the U.P. region. Resultantly, moisture incursion concentrated in the Eastern end of the trough. It brought extensive clouding into Nepal and adjoining U.P. In U.P, Kasganj measured 70 mms, Etah 20 mms and Agra measured a reasonable 24 mms of rain.

On reviewing yesterday's forecast map put up on Vagaries, it can be seen that the rain areas forecasted (blue colour) has been pushed Northwards a bit. However, in the areas forecasted by Vagaries, Brahmapuri(Vidharbh) measured 33 mms, Raipur 31 mms, Jabalpur 26 mm sand Nagpur 6mms.

Naintal had a cold 31st, with 20 mms of rain and a low of 3c.

Kathmandu was overcast on Sunday, a dark begining to 2012, with the occasional light drizzle.The highest temperature on New Years Day was 12.6c.

Expect the trough to shorten upto the Madhya Mah.region by Monday, and a decrease in precipitation from the U.P.and Nepal regions. Kathmandu will see decrease in cloudiness from Monday, with the night temperature going to near freezing on Wednesday morning.

In Sindh, Pakistan,Karachi and Sukkar were at a minimum of 8c on the first day of 2012.Expect the night to be in the 8-10c region till Wednesday.Partly cloudy skies from Thursday will see a rise in night temperatures.

The first W.D. of the year will bring precipitation to the Northern regions of Pakistan from Wednesday thru Friday. Numbering the system J1, it would move into Northern India on Wednesday. The system would be of average strength, and would bring snow to Kashmir, H.P. on Wed/Thu/Fri.

Light rainfall in the Punjabs on either side of the international border could be expected. Haryana and adjoining U.P. could get cloudy weather with light rainfall on the 5th and 6th.

Cloudy weather could extend into Upper Sindh (Pakistan) and Rajasthan regions. A cold spell could follow this system.

Mumbai: A UAC (located around central India) embedded in the trough brought a gush of cold NNW winds into the Mumbai region. Winds throughout the day on Sunday saw the day's high at 28c in Mumbai. Mumbai(S'Cruz) low could be 14c on Monday morning.

Temperatures are expected to rise again to the 18/19c level (S'Cruz) from Tuesday. A cold wave would see nights getting cold again from 6th, Friday.

Pune will see a sharp drop in the minimum temperature, from Sunday's 18c, and record a low of 13c on Monday, with a clear day.

2012-01-01T09:16:00.002+05:30

Wishing All Readers and Followers of Vagaries all the Best and a Happy 2012. Hoping all your Wishes and Dreams are Realised.

Thank You all for the Personal Wishes and your Continued Support and Encouragement.

Its Your link and Feedback that is keeping Vagaries alive and going.

Vagaries- Bringing the Weather to your Home !

2011-12-31T01:54:00.003+05:30

Pre New Year and New Years Day Forecast for Mumbai/Pune/Nagpur and Delhi on Mumbai Page:

New Year Eve and New Year Forecast:

Click here for Larger Image

2011-12-30T09:07:00.004+05:30

Position @1.30 pm IST Friday. System pressures weakens to 993 mb and surface winds at 70 kmph. System moving west, slightly South. Heavy rains expected at Salem with gusty winds till tonite.

x------------------------x---------------------------------x---------------------------x-------x

Cyclone "Thane " crosses land at 4.30 am on Friday at exacly 11.8 N and 79.7E, that is at Puducherry. While crossing, it sustained core pressure at 983 mb, which weakened rapidly on hitting land.

Currently at 8.30 am, centre of system 55 kms west of Cuddalore.

Expected west movement with weakening. Overcast in Bangalore with cool Friday and intermittent rains.

2011-12-29T20:47:00.002+05:30

Reviewed at 10.pm IST, "Thane" is about 100 kms East of Puducherry. Notching up slightly, Pressure at 986 mb, the surface winds are 125 kmph, both parameters strengthening in the last 2 hrs.

Tracking slightly Northwards, 12.3N now), at about 10 kms per hour (currently), it can be assumed to cross the coast South of Chennai by early Friday Morning.

Chennai is facing gusty winds (NE) since 8.30 pm, and gusts have topped 56 kmph.

Cuddalore is experiencing moderate to heavy rains, and is a cool 23c at 9 pm. Wind s are at 30-35 kmph, with gust possibly of 60 kmph.

x-------------x-----------------------x---------------------x----------------x---x

Currently at 8.00 pm IST, "Thane "is 110 kms East of Puducherry, and has commenced its weakening phase. It is now 989 mb and surface maximum winds have dropped to 110 kmph. This weakening was expected from tonite (See previous post).

Rainfall in Chennai ( as per Kea Station) till 8.30 pm 24 mms.

Next Update at 10.0 pm IST.

2011-12-29T17:35:00.003+05:30

click here for larger view

“Thane” : precariously close to coastline South of Chennai near Puducherry.

Just about 175 kms away from the coastline, at 81E, the strength has marginally weakened to 984 mb, not much to physically affect the strength, as winds are maintained at 14o kmph.

Map shows the latest position at 12Z 29th Thursday.

Expect heaviest rains in Chennai from around 6 pm on Thursday evening, and increasing rainfall along the coast.

Winds will be gale force and destructive along the T.N. coast.

Centre expected to cross late tonite just South of Chennai.

2011-12-29T10:20:00.003+05:30

Click here for better view

Report of "Thane" at 2.30 pm IST Thursday:

System has moved NW, and lies 250 kms e/s/east of Chennai.Superimposed latest position on yesterday's Map above.

Expect more rains in Chennai as the storm moves NW, forecasted earlier by Vagaries.

Currently at 2 pm (IST) Chennai is a pleasant 22c and overcast with light to medium rains. Winds have notched up to 30 kmph by afternoon.

Very heavy rains and winds expected in Puducherry as the SW segment of the cyclone approaches the region.

Report as on 10 am (IST) Thursday:

"Thane" moves West, draws closer to Chennai, being just 300 kms ESE of the city. (12N and 83E).

Strength maintained at 980 mb, and core surface winds roaring at 130 kmph.

Chennai receiving persistant drizzle since last night. Rain intensity to increase from mid day, with thunder. Wind speed likely to touch 40-50 kmph today.

But, the system likely to start weakening from tonite.

Next update at 12 noon.

2011-12-28T12:41:00.005+05:30

Click here for better view

"Thane" report as on 9.00 pm IST, Wednesday:

"Thane" deepening astoundingly, and is a very severe cyclonic storm (IMD terminology) with a core pressure of 980 mb and surface winds roaring at 120 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph !Cat. 1 as per international standards.

Now, tonite, in the next 12 hrs, there will be further intensification, with the pressure dropping further and winds raging to 140 kmph by tomorrow.
I would put up a special alert for the entire coast from Puducherry upto
Coastal A.P.

click here for larger view for Wind Field around storm

Very intense convection resultant clouds are observed west of the storm right upto the centre. Cloud tops are very high and temperatures are at -86c.
The pressure started droping from mid day today, Wednesday, and bottomed to 980 mb by 8.30 pm IST.

Chennai alert for high winds and gales from tonite.Cloudiness starts increasing rapidly, and coastal waves will be lashing at 22 feet.

x--------------------------x------------------------x--------------------x---------x

"Thane" deepens to 990 mb with gusty winds at 110 kmph.Currently (5 pm) at 500 kms west of Chennai.
Gusty winds at 30-40 kmph from a Northerly direction to hit Chennai from tonite. Heavy clouding and wind speed gradually on the increase from tonite..

Detailed traching and map will be up tonite...with latest at 19.30 pm

Report of 12.30 pm (IST) Wednesday.
As the ridge deepens, "Thane" moves due west. Moved marginally west in last 6 hrs, and is 550 kms due west of Chennai. Convection increases in the SW quadrant. Clouds at phenomenal height, with top at -85c ! Pressure at 992, but winds raging at 100 kmph. Seas getting rough.

Could strike by Friday, slightly North of Chennai, possibly at current strength.

2011-12-28T01:12:00.003+05:30

Report of Wednesday Morning: Status Quo ! Same strength, same speed and moved just 1 degree due west.More around Noon.

Click here for better viewing

Not much change in the last 6 hrs ending mid night (IST) 27th . No change in track forecast . Hence reproduced on earlier map. Position "B" is the current location , as on mid night.

2011-12-27T15:20:00.000+05:30

Latest on Tuesday afternoon shows the cyclone "Thane" taking a slight NW curve.We notice a ridge line having formed to the North, and Vagaries expects the ridge to deepen, enabling the cyclone to take a more Westwards curve.

At 12.4N AND 86.5E, the centre lies 700 kms ESE of Chennai.Surface wind speed is 40 knts, 75 kmh, and core pressure at 992 mb.Almost constant.Lately, convection has increased, and cloud top temperature (lowest) is -77c.

Mumbai S'Cruz registered a low of 11.4c on Tuesday morning.Nasik was 5.4c and Pune saw 7.6c.

Lowest in the plains of India was -1.6c at Amritsar.

Next update tonite @ 10 pm.

2011-12-27T09:02:00.003+05:30

Tuesday Morning Update on "Thane"

BB-12 now sshows a distinct feature,a spiral, indicating strong core winds, already recording upto 50 knts, or 90 kmph, and core pressure at 992 mb.See an extreme close up of the centre above.

Named "Thane", it is set to intensify into a cat. 1 or maybe 2 storm soon. It can be said so, as it is almost stationary, and constantly picking up moisture and energy from the 27c warm waters. In fact, its convective cloud top temperatures have now scaled , or bottomed, -90c !

But, a defiant NE "cold" flow, will resist its intensification to some extent. It may even stop at a certain stage deepening after 24 hrs.

The much anticipated ridge axis along the 12N line has formed, forcing "Thane" to slowly track NW now, and,it seems to be heading towards Chennai. The city has to be alerted for a severe cyclonic storm !Rough seas will be created, with 14-16 feet waves lashing the North T.N. coastline.This is a fore warning, as today, most of the high winds are to the N and S of the cyclone, not to the West.See image.

Next update 6 hrs hence at 3 pm IST

2011-12-26T20:02:00.004+05:30

Mumbai and Pune Weather Forecast updated ..see Mumbai Page.

sset: I explained in vagaries that the ridge will form next 12 hrs and steer the system westwards. I think it will hit coast south of or very near Chennai.

Viravanalluran and Pradeep: The system will hold strength,till it strikes the coast. after that will dissipate fast as it moves westwards.

That is what I forecast and estimate as on the current scenario.

click here for better view of actual track

BB-12 Report:

System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.

Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !

We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night.

2011-12-26T12:10:00.002+05:30

Click here for larger view very severe weather with heavy rains could be expected in Chennai from 27th. Bangalore may follow the next day with heavy rains.

2011-12-25T16:27:00.003+05:30

BB-12 Report as ot 10.30 pm IST Sunday:

click here for larger view

Since our last report, the system has tracked due North/NE, and, if it may be said, has achieved and reached the Sunday position estimated by Vagaries in the map published on the 23rd, shown as position "A" in the original forecast map reproduced again above. Only variation is the estimated pressure by vagaries was 1000 mb and actual is at 1003 mb.

Now,at 10N and 88E,it is expected to track to position "B" almost as per our schedule.Pressure is 1003 mb and winds at 25 knts, BB-12 should deepen by tomorrow to 1000 mb and become a depression.

Vagaries had put up a temperature forecast map on the 20th of December, for a 22nd - 26th temperature forecast. Certain temperatures forecasted like Kathmandu,Srinagar, Mumbai and Chandigarh are almost as per estimate, while a few vary by a degree here and there.

Shall put up a forecast map for the 27th-1st Jan period tomorrow night. Should give a rough idea of the New Year Eve forecasted weather.

Cold but snowless Christmas for the North. Leh at -26c and Gulmarg at -10c were among the lows in the state.

Lowest in the plains on Christmas morning (as reported) was -1.4c at Churu (Rajasthan). Amritsar was -0.6c and Hissar at 0c on Christmas morning.

Nalliya in Gujarat was the lowest in the state at 3.2c.

In Mah, Ahmadnagar was 6c and Nasik at 7c.

Across the border, Islamabad and Sibbi plummet to -2c and Karachi is steady at 8c.

2011-12-25T09:35:00.001+05:30

A Merry Christmas and Season's Greetings to all the Vagaries' Readers and Followers !

Cold Christmas Morning in NW India !

Leh at -16c, Srinagar at -5c, Churu repeats at -1c on Sunday morning, whilst Delhi dips to a low of 2.9c on Christmas morning ! More later as details pour in .

BB-12 moved ENE, and was stationed at 7.3N and 87E this morning. NE movement may be temporary, and could be due to the unexpected arriaval of a W.D. in the Northern regions. Strength almost constant at 1002 mb and winds at 25 knts. Track could possibly turn to our predicted course, only the W.D. has caused a delay of 24 hrs in the time schedule framed earlier.

Next update at 3 pm IST.

2011-12-24T12:05:00.001+05:30

Vagaries has numbered the low in sequence as BB-12. On Saturday morning, At a core pressure of 1002 mb, the system has moved NW and is 350 kms East of Colombo. As per vagaries forecast map, BB-12 will strengthen and move NW as shown, as it is embedded in the ITCZ.
Major clouding is in the North of the system due to the NEM moisture flow.
A W.D. has moved into Kashmir and adjoining North Pakistan regions today.

2011-12-23T16:59:00.002+05:30

A low formed in the Bay labelled 92B has moved NW, and is east Sri Lanka at 6.6N and 85E.

At 1004 mb pressure as on Friday night, it is having winds at core of 15-20 knts.

The Northern segment of the system is enriched with good clouding due to the moistured laden NE monsoon winds hitting the system.With SST at 27c, it may just about hold on.

Tracking path expected is NW, and deepening to level 1000 mb initially by Sunday, and then to depression level of 998 mb by Monday,system can cross the T.N.coast by Monday. Very heavy rains expected as a result in Eastern parts of the Island and Southern T.N.from Saturday night.

Progressive increase in preciipitation on Sunday on entire T.N. coastline and Southern interior T.N.Rainfall in excess of 100 mms possible in some places along T.N. coast on Sunday/Monday.

Upto 40-50 mms of rain possible in Chennai on Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty winds of 35 kmph likely along South T.N. Coast.

A strong upper air (500 hpa level) Sw wind has brought alto-cumulus clouding across the stretch from South Konkan thru Vidarbha and into M.P.on Friday. This should be temporary and vanish by Sunday, but bring about a rise in night temperatures in Vidarbha.

A mild W.D. is moving into the Northern regions of the sub-continent.

2011-12-22T21:42:00.001+05:30

Parts of Sindh in Pakistan are reeling under a severe cold wave.
As per the Pakistan Met site, Nokkundi in the Sindh recorded a minimum of -5.3c ! The confusion is that some other international sites show Nokkundi minimum as 0c on the same morning (Thursday).Yet to verify the correct temperature.
And Sibbi was -1c on Thursday morning.
Karachi dipped to 7c. We had expected the port city to drop to 9c (between 22nd and 26th, as per map put up yesterday). Expected to maintain trend of 8/9c till 25th.

Kathmandu was forecasted to drop to 2c, and the reading today morning was 1.5c.

In India. Bhatinda was the lowest in the plains at 1.2c. In the hills, Leh was at a seasonal low of -16c on Thursday.
Cold conditions are expected to spread Eastwards into India, The NW regions initially, from Friday. And the NW winds (as per our yesterday's map) will gain from Friday.

Mumbai too, is expeceted to follow the trend. Our estimate of 16cin the 22-26 period is very much on target.

Pune is heading towards 9c.

Nagpur was very low at 9c on Thursday. Likely to maintain the 8/9level for the next 3/4 days.

Check Space News Update...

2011-12-20T23:20:00.002+05:30

Our expected W.D, numbered D-2, brought moderate snowfall to Kashmir. Resorts of Gulmarg, Sonmarg and Pahalgam received around 1-2 cms of snow. Though not heavy, it was welcome.
Srinagar had freezing rain, but no snow was reported.
Also, as expected, the cold wave abets to some extent, and the lowest temperatures showed a marked rise.

As the system moves away, after the 22nd, we can expect NW winds to set in along the NW /Central and West Coast of India.

Click here for Larger Map

For the next 3/4 days (22-26th), the regions shown in the Vagaries map above would be in for cold windy days and a drop in the night temperatures.

The plains of Pakistan, right down to the Coast, will be windy (NW), and nights are expected to drop till the 26th.
Karachi, which is currently at 13c, can fall back to 10c from the 23rd/24th.

We shall monitor the system approaching the Southern T.N. coast.

2011-12-19T23:49:00.002+05:30

Cold is holding its gripover the Northern region of the sub-continent.

The lowest in the Indianregion was Adampur (Punjab) which saw a low of-0.4c on Monday, with Hissar in Haryana at 0c on Monday. Amritsar with 1c was another place withextremely low night temperature.

The days were cold in U.P.and adjoining regions on Monday. Varanasi at 14cin the day being 11c below normal, Allahabadhaving a high of 15c, which was 10c below normal. All places in the region werearound 7-10c below normal in the day.

The persisting cold waveis attributed to the high pressure area (upper air) sitting over the area. Withthe NW winds starting after the W.D. passes, say by the 21st, we can expect thedays in the North to become normal, and cold winds would sweep the NW andcentral regions.

Meanwhile the W.D,mentioned in Sunday's blog, is moving into the Kashmirregion. Would expect Srinagarto receive its first snow on Tuesday.

Snowfall, heavy on thehigher portions, is expected on the Jammu-Srinagar highway on Tuesday. Travelersare expected to be prepared for closures in parts.

Delhi will be partly cloudy next 2 days, with the nighttemperature going up marginally to 7c; with the days will be around 20c.

Mumbai: Tuesday and Wednesday: Partly cloudy with high cirrusclouds. Max in the day will be around 32c, and night temperature should be18/19c.

Pune: Tuesday and Wednesday: Partly cloudy with thick cirrusclouds (high). Day will be around 31c and night will be 12c.

Surat will be clear, with the day /Night range between 31cand 19c. Expecting cooling after the 24th.

An Easterly wave (mentionedin Sunday's Blog) will bring some rains to the South T.N coast on Tuesday andWednesday. As mentioned earlier, a pulse from the typhoon Washi hold on to achance of a system coming towards the East coast around the 25th.

2011-12-18T18:12:00.000+05:30

A moderate cold wave has been sweeping the Northern regionsof the sub-continent since 14th of December.

In the plains of India,we have seen a low of 1c at Churu on the 17th, and frequent lows of 2c at Amritsar, Karnaul, Agraand Hissar. Delhihas seen a low of 4.7c yesterday, and frequented 5c a couple of times.

In Kashmir, Leh plunged to -13c as its lowest this season,and Srinagarwas at -4.3c as the minimum. In H.P, Keylong saw -6c on a couple of occasions.In the higher reaches, it was Shyok at -24c as the leader in the country.

The cold penetrated thru Punjab, Chandigarh(at 5c) and into M.P. with Umeria and Gwaliorseeing 4c, and Rajasthan. The nights in Gujarat and Madhya Mah. (Western interior Mah) were belownormal by 2c (See map above), but not severe. Nalliya in Kutch recorded 5c a fewnights back, and Rajkothovered around 10/11c. Nasikreached 9.6c, while Pune saw 10/11c on a few nights.

Due to dry conditions, and absence of rains, the entiresouthern peninsula was around 2c below normal.

The cold, even normal minimums, evades the coastal belt ofMah. and Gujarat. Mumbai S'Cruz has not gonebelow 16c, that too on one occasion and Colaba has reached only 21c on a singlenight. The reason is obvious. See on the * below.

Across the Western border in Pakistan too, it has been cold in theplains, with the capital Islamabad hitting belowfreezing, at -1c continuously on several nights.Lahore, Gujranwalaand Faisalabadare at 3c.

In the Sindh region, Nokkundi has been bottoming 1c on acouple of occasions, and the interiors of the region are cold at around 2-4c,with Sibbi constantly at 2c.

The coastal city of Karachiplummeted to 10c, and has maintained this currently.

Kathmandu has been seeingcolder nights, with lows touching 2.6c on a few occasions the capital isconstantly steady at 3c since the last one week. As Neeraj points out, thisyear fog seems to be rare. It is just absent #. (His report put up interactivepage for those interested).

#For the entire region, I would attribute this cold wave notto a W.D. but to a weather condition which i have explained in this blogearlier.

It is due to a stationary high pressure zone over theregion. A constant high pressure area causes the skies to clear and a coldfront encroaches the area. In reality, it is an aftermath of a W.D. Currentlythere is no precipitation.

* Hence, actually, there is no cold wind sweeping theregions from the North, like it happens after a W.D.When the cols wave is dueto a direct W.D. effect, we have cold NW winds sweeping down and covering theentire region and the West coast.*

Now, we have a weakish W.D. coming by the 20th. Weak,because it is an upper air system. Being such, it should bring precipitation tothe upper hilly regions of the sub continent, and some good snowfall in Kashmir from the 20th. But rains will be scanty in theplains of Punjab and Haryana.

That translates to an abetment of the current cold wave.

Mumbai, on the other hand will nowsee more civilized day temperatures. The days at S’Cruz have been constantlybetween 34-35c, almost since the beginning of this month. And obviously that isabove the normal of what this city should expect.

From the 19^th/20^th onwards,I expect the day temperatures not to exceed the 31/32c mark. A gradual fall ofaround 3c, and that too in the day. Most welcome I am sure !

The nights in Mumbai would be around the current level till the 25^th.Should hover around the 17c/18c mark at S”Cruz and around 21c at Colaba. Fromthe 25^th to the 31^st, I expect the nights to drop. Not toomuch, but to around the 15c level, with an odd night at 14c, at S’Cruz, and tothe 19c level, with an odd night at 18c for Colaba.

On the other hand, I think Pune should expect the nights tocome back to the 13c/14c level, and drop again to 10c after the 25^thof December.

For the South, an easterly wave is expected to bring in aspell of rain of the NEM. Around the 20^th of December. Rains will concentratedin the extreme south of the peninsula. Would be heavier in

Sri Lanka

and southern T.N.

Another spell. Could be the ultimate, is pushing in to reachthe T.N. shores by the 25^th.

2011-12-17T13:03:00.000+05:30

2011-12-17T10:15:00.001+05:30

A very Rare andSpectacular Event occurred in Space Yesterday !!.....See on Space News Page

2011-12-13T22:47:00.001+05:30

Please Check Snippets (right of page) regularly from Today..Brief one Liners will be Put up when detailed Publishing not Required.

Cold Wave intensifies in Northern Pakistan plains, as Islamabad touches freezing point, 0c, on Tuesday morning. Whilst Sibbi, in Sindh, maintained its low at 2c, Karachi rose marginally to 15c. The lowest was at Nokkundi, 1.9c.

In India, the lowest in the plains was 3.7c at Hissar.

As estimated yesterday, the night temperatures will rise from Wednesday.

Cold Wave moves from North/Central India to Nepal. Kathmandu saw a low of 2.7c on Tuesday. Jumla in the higher reaches saw -5.7c.

For Nepal, the cold, like in India, will last for a couple of days.

Partly cloudy (High to medium level) weather likely on Wednesday and Thursday in Saurashtra, resulting in rise in temperatures from current level.

Mumbai and Pune will be partly cloudy, mostly high clouds, next two days. The nights will be around 19c in Mumbai and 15c for Pune on Wed/Thursday. But, days will be warm, around 33c and 31c in Mumbai and Pune.

2011-12-12T23:07:00.002+05:30

A cold wave is sweeping thru Kutch, with Naliya recording 4.6c on Monday mornning.Kandla reached 9c and Rajkot was 10c all on Monday morning.

Across the border, a cold wave is prevailing in the Central and Northern regions of Pakistan, an aftermath of the recent W.D.

On Monday morning,Islamabad dropped to 2c, and in Sindh, Sibbi too was at a low of 2c. The lowets in the Sindh was 0.5c at Las Bella.

With Karachi and Hyderabad at 13c, I expect the nights to rise after Wednesday morning.

North India and Pakistan will see a rise of 2/3c from current temperatures from Wednesday.

A depression, 26 W is now in the western Pacific,east of Vietnam. At 1000 mb, and winds at 30 knts, system is set to move due west, and pass South of Vietnam by the 15th. fo December.

Should normally send a pulse into the Bay of Bengal.

A low pressure can form in the Bay by the 17th/18th, could develop into a depression and approach the T.N. coast around the 20th.This could bring about a final bout of good and meaningfull rainfall in T.N. May well be the final round before the NEM withdraws.

Hence, expecting rainfall in T.N. from the 20th/21st.Sri Lanka will get heavy rains during the period 18th Dec-23rd Dec.

Indications today show this rain persisting in T.N. and moving inland into the interiors of the state and S.I.Karnataka around 22/23 of December. This is a 10 day estimate, and could vary.

A low in the Western Arabian Sea will form by Tuesday, and initially remain stationary. Will move due west later after a couple of days.Only effect will be rainfall in the Lakshdweep Islands.

Mumbai and Pune Forecast:Not expecting a further fall in night temperatures for the next 3 nights.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Hazy and high clouds. Day will be around 32c and night will be 17c.

Thursday: clear with day temperature at 31c and night at 18c.

Pune will be clear, with day temperature at 31c and night at 12c on Tuesday/Wednesday.

U.K. Weather set to Worsen…More on Mark’Blog.

Strong winds, heavy rains to spread across UK tonight, Windy Wednesday for north but late week storm still looking strong and damaging

50-60MPH WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH

*HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALISED FLOODING A SERIOUS SURFACE SRAY ON ROADS

BIG FREEZE SET TO STRIKE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO MINUS 10C

2011-12-10T21:00:00.004+05:30

Please Check Snippets (right of page) regularly from Now..Brief one Liners will be Put up when detailed Publishing not Required.

astronomical scale picture sequences,….see space news page

Ending Phase:

Moon reappears after Total Eclipse

Courtesy Ashokbhai

2011-12-10T20:32:00.002+05:30

Courtesy Ashokbhai.

2011-12-10T19:17:00.001+05:30

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

2011-12-10T10:37:00.003+05:30

Vagaries will be putting up Live Pictures of the Eclipsed Moon at 7 pm, 8 pm, and 9 pm.(IST).

The pictures will be published "on the spot" live and will be sent to us by Akshay's AKG Centre from Nagpur.

Be sure to see this spectacular event live on Vagaries !

2011-12-09T20:24:00.005+05:30

click here for larger view

Timings and Details of the Total Lunar Eclipse on Saturday, 10th December:

For India:

In the NE states,West Bengal,Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of Chattisgarh, the moon rises before the P1 stage. So they can experience the entire phenomena starting with the shading of the moon. Places other than these, will see an eclipsed moon rising.

Moon enters the Umbra - 0615PM IST

Total Eclipse Begins - 0736PM IST

MAXIMUM - 0802PM IST

Total Eclipse Ends- 0827PM IST

Partial Eclipse ends - 0948PM IST

Penumbral Eclipse ends- 11PM IST

Moon Rise in Mumbai on Saturday is at 17h 57m IST.

click here for good view

The general timings for regions shown in the map above are -

P1 = 11:33:32 UT ….. (0503PM IST)….. Moon enters the penumbra

U1 = 12:45:42 UT …. (0615PM IST)….. Moon enters the umbra

U2 = 14:06:16 UT ….. (0736PM IST) … TOTAL ECLIPSE BEGINS

GREATEST ECLIPSE - 1432UT ( 0802PM IST)

U3 = 14:57:24 UT …. (0827PM IST)

U4 = 16:17:58 UT….. (0948PM IST) … MOON LEAVES UMBRA

P4 = 17:30:00 UT …. (11PM IST) … ECLIPSE ENDS

Details from Akshay's Blog.

More details about the concept and actual FAQs of a Lunar eclipse are explained and found on Akshay's Blog here.

2011-12-08T23:21:00.000+05:30

2011-12-08T10:44:00.003+05:30

Severe Weather News from Mark’s Blog !!

Scotland Storm from Mark’s blog.

SCOTLAND ENDURED 170 MPH ATLANTIC STORM CAUSING WIDESPREAD DISRUPTION, DAMAGE

Police are warning against all travel in the central belt in an unprecedented move as winds of more than 160mph batter Scotland.

Strong gusts: An easyJet plane is blown around in the wind as it lands at Edinburgh airport this evening

Scotland storm blackout hitting thousands

The Met Office said winds at Cairngorm Summit had reached up to 165mph (264km/h).

RED WARNING!

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OF 75 TO 90 MPH TO BRING WIDESPREAD DISRUPTION ACROSS SCOTLAND ON THURSDAY

Not everyday do you see a red weather warning issued for the main population belt of Scotland!

'Red alert': Schools close as dangerous 100mph storms strike Scotland

Residents across parts of Scotland are being warned to take action as "dangerous" stormy weather with gusts of over 100mph hit the country.

An Atlantic storm is set to bring strong winds to the UK for Thursday and Friday, with gale force gusts affecting many areas.

x----------------------x-----------------------x--------------------x

The Botanical Gardens, Ooty on Wednesday, 7th Morning !

Severe frost has hit normal life, particularly during the early hours of morning in Ooty.

Among the places worst affected are the Government Botanical Garden, the Race Course and areas around the Ooty Lake.

With the mercury plummeting, the minimum temperature recorded at the observatory was 4c, while in the garden station it was 0c on Wednesday .

2011-12-06T22:55:00.003+05:30

Total lunar Eclipse – December 10, 2011…see Space News Page

click here for larger view

Lowest in India on Tuesday, 6th December: Darbuk (Ladakh) : -16c. Leh was -8c, Gulmarg at -4c and Pahalgam at -1c.

Lowest in the plains of India :8c at Amritsar.

Hottest in Asia on Tuesday, 6th December: Dawei (Myanmar) and Ratnagiri (India) :35c. Along the west coast of India, Surat, Panjim and Mangalore were at 34c.

It seems the highest in Pakistan (Tuesday) was 34c at Mithi. 31c at Sibbi, Turbat and Karachi.

Kathmandu was still a bit warmer than normal at 20.5c, with the low at 8.6c.

Overall Departure map of India (on IMD site , seen here and here ) shows a major part of India in the "above normal" zone for the day and night temperatures.

2011-12-04T22:56:00.006+05:30

Forecasted Temperatures. Clear Weather with No Rain in the any of the cities below.

Forecast for Cities:

Mumbai S'Cruz:

Mon: Clear. 34c - 21c (Actual: 32 - 20)

Tue: Clear. 34c - 20c (33 - 20)

Wed: Clear. 33c - 19c.

Thu: Clear. 32c - 19c.

Pune:

Mon: Clear. 32c - 15c (Actual : 33 - 15)

Tue: Clear. 32c - 15c. (33 - 16)

Wed: Clear. 30c - 16c.

Thu: Clear. 30c - 16c

New Delhi:

Mon: Clear.shallow Fog. 25c - 13c (Actual: 30 - 11)

Tue: clear.Shallow Fog. 24c - 13c. (29 -15)

Wed: Clear. 25c -15c.

Thu: Clear. 26c - 16c.

An Easterly wave with embedded UAC is likely to bring rains along the T.N. coast by Wednesday. May be of moderate intensity.

No effective W.D. till Thursday, hence dry in the North.

Forecast post Thursday will be put up in a couple of days.

Topics From Mark’s Blog

Large portions of Scotland see or will see their first snowfall of season Sun/Mon

"I would be more concerned if the Arctic reservoir over Greenland and the Pole wasn't as strong as it is now.. It's turning increasingly bitter and all this must go somewhere, all we need is a flip in both NAO and NAO and that's got to happen sometime right"?

2011-12-02T22:36:00.002+05:30

Mumbai/Pune weekend temperature forecast For Mumbai and Pune …see Mumbai Page

Worst Santa Ana windstorm to strike California in 10 years brings widespread damage and power loss. Be sure to check out details on Mark's Blog.

High Winds cause Massive Damage in Southern Cal..Los Angeles Times

2011-12-01T23:20:00.003+05:30

Its been a Warm November 2011 for the Sub-Continent:

Last week of November anomaly map shows extremely hot conditions in N.India and Central India, and most of Pakistan.

November Heat Wave In Himachal Pradesh:

The last few days of November, a winter month for this Himalayan State, has been Hot ! In fact, its a heat wave on ! With temperatures up to 10c (almost 18F) above normal in Simla, its literally Hot in the state.

Some Places in H.P. showing the max and min temperatures with departures as on 30th November.

Simla: 23 (+10) 6 (+1)

Dharamsala: 22 (+3) 6 (-2)

Keylong: 11 (+5) 4 (+4)

Manali: 18 3

Kalpa: 20 (+8) 7 (+8)

In fact, for the regions comprising H.P, almost throughout the month, its been hot,except for a few exceptional days during the tenure of W.D. This system had brought rains and snow initially in the month, in H.P.

Otherwise, the month has been absolutely dry, as seen from these November rainfall details for Himachal.

Place, November actual rain, Normal Total, % deficient.

HP State 7.7 45.1 -83%

SHIMLA 3.5 36.3 -90%

SOLAN 0.2 51.2 -99%

KINNAUR 1.4 34.4 -96%

BILASPUR 1.3 31.8 -96%

HAMIRPUR 3.3 40.9 -92%

Adverse NE and E winds replaced the normally required W winds. Moisture from the Arabian Sea brought in a lot of moisture into the regions, creating cloudiness and "trapped" heat.

Nepal too, has similar reasons for being hot. A similar state is prevelent in Nepal. Neeraj from Kathmandu writes -"What is the reason behind the temperature hovering in the 8C-22C range, in fact today it was 10c-22c here. Today is the last day of November, I guess the temperatures (esp the min temp) should be a little below this by now.Last year,it was 3.6C-23C on the same day and the year before that it was 6.3C- 22.6C".

Kathmandu too, has been warmer than usual for the month. I would work out the average for the month this year has been in the 23c - 10c range,while the normal is 23c - 7c.In fact Kathmandu too had received rains as a result of N2.

Mumbai/Pune November Weather and weekend Forecast… Chennai and B’Lore November Diagrams ..See Mumbai Page

2011-11-30T20:49:00.003+05:30

With AS-4 weakening on Wednesday, its down to 1000 mb with 25 knts winds, the track and rain forecast put up by Vagaries (map) on 23rd November was stuck to almost "obediently".

Periodically, the map, with the original, has been updated with the changes. Below is the latest position as on Wednesday evening.

Click here for larger view.

2011-11-30T12:58:00.001+05:30

Latest on AS-4 as on 12noon IST Wednesday:

As per the latest NRl/JTWC report, AS-4 has weakened in the last 6 hrs. Going fairly well in accordance with Vagaries' estimate, this system is now expected to fizzle out over the A.Sea in the next 36 hrs. The centre is currently at 17N and 64E, roughly 900 kms W/SW of Mumbai.Cloud bands to the NW of the centre persist, with winds at 25 knts in that region.

As it weakens, Sur and the regions around it in Oman can expect medium rains and cloudy weather North up to Muscat is possible.

As mentioned, cloudy weather for Karachi today, stuffy and hot.

More later.

2011-11-29T23:10:00.004+05:30

AS-4 has moved N/NW in the last 6 hrs, and at 10 pm Tuesday, is located at 16.2N and 66.3E. That would mean 750 kms W/NW of Goa and 900 kms South of Karachi.

The distinguishing part is the centre, though having 35 knts winds, is relatively free of major clouding. A spiral band, 360 kms to the NW of the centre, is moving towards coastal Sindh. System is still at 998 mb with cyclonic winds of 35 knts and gusting to 45 knts.

AS-4 is set to start weakening from Wednesday. The clouds spiral rushing into coastal Sindh will produce extremely stuffy weather in Karachi tonite (Tuesday). Possiblity of light rain will make it uncomfortable. For Karachi, I do not expect the rain to persist much beyond mid day on Wednesday, though cloudy weather will linger on for another 2 days.

Another system is forming in the Southern Bay at 89E. Still in the initial stage, will discuss the developments on Wednesday.

Mumbai was the limit on Tuesday. Hot, humid and partly cloudy ! Produced the most unbearable weather conditions.

With the high hittting 36.8c, +4c above the normal, Mumbai was the hottest in Asia on Tuesday. Thankfully it is not the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere, where Tambacounda (Senegal) was at 39c.

For India, the 2nd hottest was a far 35.2c at Surat.

Hot and humid partly cloudy weather expected into Wednesday and Thursday for Mumbai, with the day hitting 35c. Night will be an unbearable 26c. Expect a few degrees drop in temperature on Friday

April normal nights are 26c for Mumbai, and the nights rise to 27c after the first week of May. The normal day for April is 33c, and 34/35c for May.

Mumbai was in the 37c - 26c range on Tuesday ! 90% humidity at Colaba on Tuesday morning and 76% in the evening ! S'Cruz was at an avg humidity of 65%.

2011-11-29T11:06:00.004+05:30

Situation as at 10 am IST Tuesday, AS-4, almost at cyclone status with winds at 35 knts. Located at 15.8N and 66.8E, mid way in the Arabian Sea between Oman and India. Moved NW.

Please notice the Sat. image showing a developing eye near the mentioned centre. Image of 10.00 am IST Tuesday. See here

Chances of Rain for Mumbai from AS-4…See Mumbai Page

2011-11-28T12:12:00.004+05:30

AS-4 as on Monday Night:

AS-4 at 10.30 pm Monday. Located at 15N and 68E, it has moved NW. Current location is 600 kms West of Goa.Winds at 35 knts and the strength is a bit reduced at present. But that is due to the night time "cooling", and as mentioned, system will attain peak strength tomorrow afternoon, and IMD will name it "Thane" at that time.

Map updated with current location of AS-4. Forecast kept constant, no change, to compare. Click here for larger view

There are reports of some rain and thundershowers from South Konkan. Though exact amounts are not available, there is confirmed news of rain in Goa, Vengurla, Sawantwadi, Malvan, Devgad and Harnai.Rain amounts are between 5-25 mms.Vagaries had put up Monday rains 10-25 mms for the Konkan belt. Decrease from tomorrow.

AS-4 as on 2.30pm Monday: 14.4N and 68.7E...moved Due West since 11.30 am Monday.

Latest Image of AS-4 as on 2 pm Monday:

AS-4 on Monday Mid day:

AS-4, IMD has declared it as a deep depression now, is currently located at 14.3N and 69E, thus moving NW again, and steadily. It is due west of Mangalore on Monday morning.

This system has strengthened, and a deep convection is seen in the cloud mass N/NW of the centre. The thick mass is spread from 13.00N to 19.00N and 64.00E to 71.00E. In fact, the convection effect has towered the cloud tops to more than 18-20 kms in height, with the lowest minimum cloud top tempertaure touching -85c !

Well, it is expected to strengthen more, till Tuesday, when it would have reached its peak.After that, it will weaken considerably, and may not cross coast as a system at all.

Reason: The SST is 29c at the centre now, and is decreasing northwards.The ocean heat content is 80-90 KJ/cm2 as on the system's location now, but becomes less than 40 KJ/cm2 towards the North Arabian Sea.The anti cyclone on the East coast of India is pushing westwards.

Saurashtra/South Gujarat coast and North Konkan will be cloudy and have light rains on Monday.

Indications show the clouding moving towards the Sindh coast from Tuesday.

2011-11-27T22:20:00.004+05:30

click here for larger view

AS-4 at 12.7N and 71.0E, as on Sunday evening, has tracked NW (See Vagaries Map of AS-4 Track above). Winds are gusting at 40-45 knts, with core pressure at 996 mb. from 74.9E on Saturday night to 71E on Sunday night, hence AS-4 is moving away from the West coast.

Likely to continue tracking NW, and weakening will startt from Tuesday evening. Tomorrow it will peak at 994/996 mb with winds gusting at 50 knts.

Cloud motion vectors show spiral cloud bands will cover the west coast from Konkan to South Gujarat on Monday. Light rain possible in N.Konkan and South Gujarat. Rise in temperatures for this week for Mah. and Gujarat regions.

Clouds from the concentrated cloud mass of the system will be stretched NE towards the Kutch and (Eastern) Sindh regions by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Karachi will be cloudy (mostly medium to high clouds) on Tuesday. Light rain in some areas possible.

Mumbai will be cloudy on Monday, with light rain in some parts of the city. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with high clouds. I had mentioned that "winter" will go for a "toss" Sure enough ! Mumbai saw a low temperature of 26c on Sunday, after having 21c in the previous 2/3 nights.The High was at 36c.

2011-11-26T21:49:00.007+05:30

On Saturday, NEM very active in T.N. and Kerala. Heavy rains in Lakshdweep Islands.

Very heavy rainfall of 180 mms recorded in Varkala (Kerala), Pallipattu (Tiruvallur dt) and Coonoor 160 mms each, Papanasam (Tirunelvelli dt), Tiruvallur and Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 150 mms each.

Kodaikanal receiving 128 mms had a high of 13c on Saturday, while Ooty was 15c during the day. Chennai (Mnbkm) received 84 mms ,while Ngmbkm managed 51 mms on Saturday.

Bangalore was a pleasant 23c during Saturday, with light rains in the daytime (5 mms).

(Latest and Mumbai forecast by 10 pm IST Sunday)

AS-4 at 10.7N and 72.3E, now 360 kms West of Cochin, as on Sunday Morning.Tracked NW, but slow in movement. Now, some European models are talking of the storm fizzling out at 20N !

click here for larger view

The latest on AS-4 as on Saturday, 26th night:

System has moved W/NW in the last 6 hrs from this blog report, and is now positioned at 8.7N and 74.9E. Actual position is 200 kms SW of Cochin.With core pressure at 996 mb the eastern segment of the system is showing winds at 35-40 knts (max). Strengthening is due to increase in vertical wind shear to 25 knts (positive).

There is active precipitation around the centre and to the West of the system centre. As predicted yesterday, Kerala and the Lakshdweep Islands had heavy rainfall on Saturday (today). Thiruvananthpuram and Agathi received 40 mms each. Minicoy had 34 mms.

Meanwhile in 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, Venkatgir (Nellore Dist) in South A.P. had a very heavy downpour of 230 mms, and Uthiramerur (Kanchipuram dt) received 200 mms. In T.N,hill station Kodai recieved 112 mms with the day's high at 14c on Friday.Rainfall in T.N will decrease from Sunday.

Due to favourable SST at 31c, and possible increase in wind shear, system will deepen a bit more till Monday, when surface winds would reach a max of up to 50 knts, and as mentioned, will start to weaken from Tuesday and fizzle out in a couple of days.

As system is tracking as per Vagaries' predicted path, there is no need to change or reproduce the same Vagaries map for future tracking ! -:)).

I expect some light rain on the coastal regions of South Gujarat and Konkan on Monday due to the spiralling of the clouds from the system, during its peak period (Monday). After that the clouding should decrease as AS-4 weakens (Shitij).

Mumbai forecast as put up yesterday.

For Coastal Sindh (Pakistan), other than clouding, and very light rain (traces, nothing meaningful) on Tuesday/Wednesday,I do not expect anything. Reason for clouding phenomena over Sindh has been described yesterday on this blog.

Next Update Sunday morning 10 am IST

2011-11-25T12:03:00.008+05:30

Latest Position of AS-4 as on mid day IST of Saturday, 26th November:

Already numbered as 05A, the system is at 8.2N and 76E, about 200 kms due South of Cochin. Thus having moved N, system, now a depression, though I would put it at deep depression strength, with a core pressure at 996 mb and 35 knts winds. It is expected to storm into the Lakshdweep seas Saturday. Very heavy rains in the islands and Kerala this week end.

AS-4 is forming like a monsoon system, with deep convective mass to the North of the system and heavy precipitating heavy rains in its Northern peripherial areas.

No change in the Forecast path and rain estimate regions as per vagaries map below (maintained).Now almost all models tow the NW track line (shown initially by Vagaries), it is shown as going North by avoiding Oman , and heading for Pakistan coastline. Vagaries' estmate remains to the track shown in the map earlier (reproduced below).

However, Vagaries maintains at "fizzle out" or, at the most weaken, after Tuesday,29th. I feel AS-4 can wear out as a system, and its pressure will rise. But, the residual precipitation can remain in the region. If a W.D. is crossing the Northern regions around the same time, then, clouds from the remnants of AS-4 can spread NE into Pakistan.

Click here for larger view

Latest Position of AS-4 as on mid night IST of Friday:

7.4N and 76.5E, about 250 kms due South of Cochin. Thus having moved NW, system, now a well marked low, with a core pressure at 1001 mb and 30 knts winds. It is expected to storm into the Lakshdweep seas on Saturday. Very heavy rains in the islands and Kerala this week end.

AS-4 is forming like a monsoon system, with deep convective mass to the North of the system and heavy precipitating heavy rains in its Northern peripherial areas.

Forecast path as per vagaries map below (maintained). Next update and forecast review at 12 noon IST Saturday.

Location Position as on Friday Morning:

The UAC has descended to sea level, and is at 4N and 79E, has moved NW. Core pressure at 1004 mb and 15 knts winds.

I have seen that the Bay of Bengal has its Southern limit at 5N, hence this system has not formed in the Bay. As it will traverse majorly in the Arabian Sea, we shall number it AS-4, when it is matured.

The forecasted rain in T.N. has been widespread, with Cuddalore receiving 140 mms,Karaikal 100 mms and Nagapattinum 99 mms. Many other stations received between 40 -70 mms.

Chennai too got heavy rains,with Meenanbakam seeing 98 mms and Nungambakkam 65 mms. NE winds late last night peaked 46 kmph during a thunderstorm.Thunderstorms are active in the city on Friday morning.

Observing the current parameters, Movement expected along the track predicted by Vagaries in the Map above.

Mumbai:

Friday,25th: Partly cloudy with high clouds. Temperature range: 32c - 22c

Saturday,26th: Partly cloudy: 32c - 24c

Sunday,27th: Cloudy and windy: 31c - 25c

Monday,28th: Cloudy. Light rain in some parts of the city. 30c - 25c.

Observe, that the " wintry" trend in Mumbai, however mild, will take a back seat now for a few days !

Overcast Friday in Dubai..see Pics on Inter active Page

2011-11-23T20:40:00.005+05:30

Location Position as on Thursday, 24th, Evening:

The UAC has descended to sea level, and is at 3N and 82E, South of Sri Lanka. Core pressure at 1004 mb and 15 knts winds. Readers, please check location on map, and suggest if we should number this as BB (from Bay) or AS (from Arabian Sea) ??

Anyway,do not under estimate its strength. Its maximum effect is in Sri Lanka. Chief amounts of rainfall in Sri Lanka today: Auradhapura 64 mms, Tricomalee 60 mms, Mannar 55 mms, Jaffna 43 mms.

Observing the current parameters, Movement and precipitation expected along the track predicted by the Vagaries Map put up yesterday.

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Posted on Wednesday, 23rd, Evening:

Keeping Sunday's weekly forecast in mind, and following it up:

We see the Southern UAC has formed, numbered 98B, by NRL. But, instead of forming off the T.N. coast as expected, it has formed much lower. After moving due west in the last 12 hrs, the UAC is stationed at 3N and 82E, S/SW of Sri Lanka. Now, Vagaries had expected the system to form much to the North, and cross the T.N. coast as a sea level low by Thursday, but being South, it will cross Sri Lanka and move West into the Arabian Sea.

Should descend to sea level as a low in the next 2 days.

Though less than expected, T.N. will receive heavy rains from Thursday and rains spreading inland.Inland, districts in the East, SE and the Northern regions of the state will receive good precipitation Friday/Saturday.

Chennai will get precipitation amounting to 5-7 cms on Friday, increasing to 7-9 cms on Saturday, with squally winds from the NE.

Click on Map for larger View

By Friday, the low (should be around 1002 mb then) will just enter the Arabian Sea regions. And Saturday will see the low track N/NW and run parallel to the west coast.

See the Vagaries Forecast Map put up.Rainfall colours are as per the key.

Its my personal view that the system will deepen to 1000 mb and move NW to fizzle out as shown.

A fresh W.D. is moving across the North regions, and will precipitate in the hills. Cloudy weather for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi next 2 days.

Mumbai "sobered" down on Wednesday, 23rd. We had expected some relief after Tuesday. S'Cruz was 34c and Colaba's high was 33c.

Tonite (Wednesday night) we may see S'Cruz dropping to 18c.

Pune too kept the schedule, and was better today at 29c as the high and 11c as the minimum.

2011-11-22T22:14:00.001+05:30

Cold Nights in Southern States of Karnataka and A.P.

Cold Wave in Interior Karnataka: Lack of clouds causing loss of the day's heat has resulted in a cold wave in interior Karnataka. The lowest night temperature in the state on Tuesday morning was 9c at Hassan, which was 7c below the normal for this time.

Amonst the other lows were: Chamarajanagar at 11c, Dharwad at 12c, Bijapur and Haveri at 13c and even on the coast, Karwar was 18c, 3 below.

Bangalore was a pleasant 16c and 15c at the airport.

Adjoining regions of A.P. are also experiancing low and below normal temperatures.

Adilabad was lowest at 11c in the state, and Hyderabad saw 14c on Tuesday morning. Cuddapah dropped to 16c, which may not seem low, but was 5c below normal for the place !

2011-11-20T17:14:00.006+05:30

A Must Share with Vagaries Readers...Unusual and intriguing Cloud Formation viz. "Cloud Streets"…see Space News Page

Mumbai November Heat..see Mumbai Page

Publishing Next week's expected Developing situation and Weather forecast for the South. Its a 7 day estimate, and will be monitiored as it happens.

As mentioned yesterday, a UAC is likely to form off the South T.N. coast/Sri Lanka around Tuesday, 22nd November. This is likely to descend to form a sea level low in the same region within next 2 days, say around the 24th (Thursday). The said Low is expected to deepen (by then it would be numbered) and cross the Southern coast of T.N.

Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday.

Hence, the coastal regions of T.N. and Chennai can expect increasing rainfall from Wednesday/Thursday, with heavy falls by Friday. Chennai can expect upto 7 cms on Friday, 25th. Interior T.N. can get meaningfull rains after Thursday thru Sunday.

As the system crosses the coast, the precipitation is expected to spread into North T.N. and S.interior Karnataka around Friday.

Vagaries shall keep track of this, as it is still 5/6 days away.

Vagaries expects this system to cross into the Arabian Sea in the subsequent week , and emerge as a low off the Kerala coast around Tuesday 29th.

Very difficult to foresee the movement and track at this stage (10 days in advance), but current conditonal observations and expected track study indicates a North movement, but a very slim survival chance of more than a couple of days for the system.

North India:

Due to the moving away of the W.D, ground fog occuredin the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P. regions on Sunday morning. Visibility was low and up to 50 mtrs. Clear skies and enough moisture will create the perfect conditions for ground fog in the same areas on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Delhi's day temperatures will be around 27c on Monday, with fog reducing visibility to 0.2 kms in the morning hours, while the night is expected to drop to 12c.

Chandigarh will be in the 25c - 12c range.

With no W.D. approaching, Pakistan should be dry. A fall in the night temperatures could be expected in the Sindh regions from Monday night.

Karachi heated up to 35c on Monday, in line with the adjoining coastal regions of India. East dominating winds were prevailing for most of the day, preventing the SW sea breeze from setting in. With the current minimum at 18c, it is expected that a marginal cooling trend will be seen from Monday night. Should expect a low of 17/18c by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Mumbai:

With the winds veering more to the East as expected on Sunday, Mumbai Colaba hit the predicted high of 36c, while S'Cruz was almost same at 35.8c.

Mumbai retains the 2nd place in Asia on Sunday, while Laem Chabang (Thailand ) was highest at 37c.

Expecting the trend continuing on Monday, with the high at 35/36c. Nights will get cooler from Monday/Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday minimum will be about 18/19c at S'Cruz and 22/23c at Colaba.

Cloudy conditions possibly returning on Friday (due to situation explained above).

Pune will be warm in the day on Monday and Tuesday. Day's high will be 31c and low a comfortable 10/11c. Cloudy weather and rise in night temperatures from Friday.

2011-11-19T22:19:00.002+05:30

See Inter-Active Page for pic of Delhi Today..

Mumbai Colaba scraps thru as the 2nd hottest place in Asia on Saturday (19th) with the day at a sizzling 36.0c. A hot weekend for Mumbai estimated for Mumbai (Vagaries' had put up 36/37c ) is taking shape (sorry Junaid), and as expected, the Mumbai temperatures for week end till Monday will be 36/37c.

A bit of relief was the 18c at night in S'Cruz and not so comfortable 23c as the minimum in Colaba.

The temperature at S'Cruz was 35.3c. It was hot, and were several 35s along the West coast on Friday.Ratnagiri was 35.9c and Surat 35.0c.

However the highest in Asia on Saturday,19th was Karwar (India) and Pattaya (Thailand) at 37c.

The NE winds along the west coast is turning towards the east now. (See earlier blog for this). Expect 36/37 along the North Konkan coast on Sunday/Monday.

BB-10, the low has fizzled out. A UAC is likely to form off the South T.N./Sri lanka coast around the 22nd. Meaningful rains likely in Sri Lanka and South T.N. from 22nd. Shall keep posting developments on Vagaries.

2011-11-18T22:46:00.002+05:30

Hottest in Asia On Friday, 18th: Makkah (Arabia), Nawabshah (Pakistan) and Pattaya (Thailand) at 36c.

Mumbai comes a close 2nd at 35c. But not alone, a host of other cities in Asia were at 35c. They are Rajkot, Bhuj, Surat and Veraval (Gujarat), Kota, Akola, Mangalore and Ratnagiri in India, Bangkok, Yangon and Sindh Hyderabad.

And the Contrast…

UAF SMITH LAKE........................49 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

NORTH POLE KJNP.......................46 BELOW (NEW RECORD)
CHALKYITSIK RAWS......................47 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

BEAVER RAWS...........................46 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

TELIDA RAWS...........................45 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

ARCTIC VILLAGE........................44 BELOW

FORT YUKON............................44 BELOW

MANLEY HOT SPRINGS....................44 BELOW

NIKOLAI...............................44 BELOW

COLDFOOT..............................42 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

LIVENGOOD RAWS........................42 BELOW (UNOFFICIAL)

TANANA................................39 BELOW

NENANA................................38 BELOW

Taken from Mark’s Blog..more details there.

2011-11-17T15:49:00.004+05:30

Mumbai, at it again, by sharing the first place on Thursday !

For Asia today, Thursday, 17^th, Nawabshah (Pakistan), Mumbai, S'Cruz and Colaba, Prachin Buri (Thailand) share honours for the hottest place at 36c.

Makkah (Arabia), Honavar and Ratnagiri (west coast, India) and Veraval (Coastal Gujarat) come a close second at 35c.

N-3, a fresh W.D, predicted 4 days ago by vagaries and put up in the monthly forecast, is expected to precipitate rain/snow over Northern Pakistan on Friday, and move eastwards into Kashmir and H.P. from Saturday.

It is hoped, that the effect of this W.D. will dislodge the anti cyclone over N/Central India, and change the winds from East (East winds are exepcted on Sunday) to NW. This pattern re-organisation should bring down the day temepratures in the Western India coastal regions from Tuesday (possibly a day earlier).

Due to weak momentum and insufficient surface energy, BB-10 has failed to develop, and is stationed as a low at 1010 mb, off the T.N. coast. It has spread its clouding on to the T.N. coast. After all it is a system, though weak, and is expected to precipitate rain along the T.N. coast and interiors of the state during the week end.

In fact, by Saturday, as the low dissipates on the shores, we can expect some heavy rains in some pockets along the coast. Chennai too can get some heavy showers by Sunday.

New Evidence for Liquid Water on Europa…See Space News Page for more on this exciting breakthrough.

From Mark’s Blog:

Spate of Tornadoes roar across Southern states, causes damage, Alaska shiversTornadoes were reported in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama..See temperatures Map of Alsaka on International Page.

2011-11-16T22:46:00.001+05:30

An anti-cyclone over Central India, swirling winds clockwise, has resulted in hot, dry winds blowing NE onto the Saurashtra and S.Gujarat/N.Konkan regions in the last 4/5 days.

Hottest in Asia on Wednesday, 16th November:

Alibag (Maharashtra,India) : 36.4c.

Mumbai Colaba, second with a close 35.8c.

Late setting in of sea breeze over Mumai has shot the day temperatures to an "all Asia" record for the city a couple of days ago.

Could get hotter at the weekend for Mumbai, as the anti cyclone shifts, and the winds are likely to become "a warm easterly". Temperature in Mumbai could touch 36/37c on Sunday/Monday. Nights will show a drop upto 21c.

2011-11-15T22:30:00.004+05:30

Click on map image:

The Monday IMD anomoly maps show great above normal tendency in both Max. and Min. temperatures throughout India.

Hottest in Asia on Tuesday, 15th November: Veraval (Gujarat, India) : 37.1c. In Pakistan Mithi was highest at 35.5c.

Divergence of winds to NE and high pressure ridge firm on Central India causing higher day temperatures below the 25N line.

BB-10 stationary at 12.4N and 89E, still weakish with no firm cloud bands. Needs a 'energy push" to strenghten the system.

Mark' Blog:

While Greeks shiver, UK may be on track for Warmest November on record, hot on heels of record warm October! North Wales was 8C above normal while Athens was 10C below normal on Sunday

2011-11-14T22:25:00.000+05:30

Mumbai:

Dry winds from the E till the late afternoon, delayed the NW sea breeze from setting in early. This pattern is persisting since last 3 days.

Hence warm inland winds till 3 pm shot up the day temperature in Mumbai. Unusual winds blowing from land to sea all along the Northern region of the West coast/Konkan coast kept the humidity low, and the temperature high.

Resultantly, Mumbai S'Cruz at 36.3c, managed to become the hottest city in Asia on Monday. The highest in Asia on 14th November ! The mercury shot up to 36.3c at S'Cruz, 35.2c at Colaba. The other hot places along the coast were Veraval (Gujarat) 36.0c, Surat was 35.6c on Monday.

Some clouding (alto cumulus/strato-cumulus) could be expected in Mumbai on Tuesday, as a result of the excessive above normal temperatures.Day will be at 34c, slightly lesser temperature, but a bit more humid.

BB-10 weakened a bit to 1010 mb with 15 knts wind. It has moved due west and has passed the Andaman islands and is at 12.4N AND 89E.

An effective W.D, N-3, is expected to reach Pakistan’s Northern regions by 17^th/18^th November.

2011-11-13T23:46:00.001+05:30

Sunday Night Headlines:

-Surat Hottest in Asia on Sunday! 36.6c.

-Mumbai S'Cruz very close 2nd at 36.4c.

-BB-10 at 1008mb moves N.

From Mark’s Blog:

2 feet of snow and 100 mph winds roar across Colorado and America West.

Underwater Volcanic Eruption off Canary Islands...Volcanic Eruption Could Give Birth to New Island….see video attached.

2011-11-12T22:25:00.003+05:30

1. BB-10 ! Vagaries' estimated 3rd and final (for November) system from the Bay is born.

Yesterday we discussed of a low brewing in the Andaman Sea. A "low level circulation" has formed around the Islands, and is given the status of 97B by NRL. It is just around 1008 mb today (Saturday) evening. BB-10 will build up slowly and travel westwards for now.

2. The low off the SW of Sri Lanka has dissipated. Nothing can be expected of it now. Rainfall will be subdued in the Southern Peninsula states next few days. Weak phase continues for the NEM.

3. Kathmandu had cloudy weather on Saturday with traces of rainfall. There will be light rainfall on Sunday also, with the day's high estimated at around 22c and a low of 13c.

4. With no W.D. in sight, dry and cold weather is expected in Northern and NW India. NW winds have started cooling the NW region, and expect nights to get cooler in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P.

Expected lows in next 2 nights,

Chandigarh: 12/13c, Amritsar: 10/11c and Delhi 12/13c.

Dry weather expected in Pakistan. Cool NW winds will bring down the temperatures in the plains and Upper Sindh regions.

5. Mumbai position : Forecast v/s actual in bracket.

Saturday: 34c - 20c : (35-20)

Sunday: 32/33c - 19c N/W winds in the evening.

Monday: 32c - 19c.

6. Pune was at a low of 14c on Saturday (estimate 13c). Though the day was high at 33c, I expect another cool night and Sunday morning should see 12/13c.

Hottest in India on Saturday was Akola (Maharashtra) at 36.1c. Surat (Gujarat) was a fraction behind at 36.0c.

Hottest in Asia on Saturday was Makkah at 37c.

2011-11-11T22:56:00.003+05:30

The low SW of Sri Lanka persists in the same position as given in previous blog. Though not approached the Island yet, should precipitate rain by this week end over Sri Lanka.

The much awaited and anticipitated low mentioned in Vagaries' November forecast ( for the 8th) may eventually form it seems. Conditions for the formation of a low are brewing around the Andaman Islands, and in fact Thai map shows a low of 1008 mb there as on Friday evening. For numbering it, Will wait and see the progress.

If it matures, then, as mentioned in monthly forecast, should track towards the T.N coast as a depression at least.

The passing of N-2 will eventually cause cooling in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi from Saturday thru Tuesday.

The central plains, i.e. M.P. and Gujarat will see a fall of 2/3c in the night temperatures.

Moisture from N-2 can possibly bring some light rain in the weekend in central Nepal.

We had forecasted cooler nights for Pune from Friday (13c estimated on Monday, 7th Nov). and so be it ! Pune was 13.4c on Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday will see the day around 31c and a cooler night at 12/13c.

Mumbai, warmed up more than expected in the day these last few days. However, the minimum temperatures were almost along expected lines.

The forecast put up on Monday (7th) last, and the actual temperature in brackets shown here for performance study.

Mumbai S'Cruz Temperature Forecast v/s Actual:

Tuesday: 34 - 22 : (34-24)

Wednesday: 33 - 22 : (36-22)

Thursday: 33 - 21 : (37-21)

Friday/Saturday: 32 - 19/20 : (35-21) ( However, Colaba was 32c).

Forecast for this weekend for Mumbai Santa Cruz:Clear Sky.

Saturday: 34c - 20c

Sunday: 32/33c - 19c N/W winds in the evening.

Monday: 32c - 19c.

2011-11-10T22:57:00.002+05:30

Vagaries of The Weather © was started initially to share views and facts on the weather. It was created with passion and I was always keen to keep weather enthusiasts abreast with the latest, and share my experiences with them.

Used my limited knowledge by posting the latest on the SWM progress thru the "Monsoon Watch" series, and chased depressions and systems trying to figure out their erractic behaviour. Caught myself running up the wrong "track" at times.

By trying to place the jig-saw pieces in place, I try to work out the regional forecast..and many a times find myself sailing "upstream". As one ardent reader gave a comment sometime ago.."Rajesh, you are sticking your neck out again ".

Whether its the hottest day, or the coldest night, or the wettest place..any news weather wise... is attempted to be shared on Vagaries.

Initially my scope was limited to the Indian weather scene, but, recently, I have taken the liberty to extend and cover the neighbouring countries and some parts of the Middle East region. Always am keen to learn more about the weather in the sub-continent.

Hope readers in the neighbouring countries enjoy this blog and find it useful, and send feedback and their views.

Vagaries has a numbering method for W.Ds and other systems from the seas.This has made blog reading much easier and less complicated when 2 or 3 systems appera simultaniously. W.D. numbering was started 2 seasons ago, and are named month wise, that N-2 for the second W.D. in November.

Vagaries commenced covering European and U.S. weather events by partnering with Mark thru his blog.

With many regular readers of Vagaries interacting and with their inputs, our blog has become more responsive.

Ok, someone wants to remain anonymous, its their decision.

Its appreciated that by adding a little humour, readers do not want to demean the seriousness of Vagaries. I have maitained vagaries in all earnestness, and am thankful to have sincere readers who consider reading this blog as part of their daily routine.

An occasional bout of light reading and humour is always welcome. Laughter is the best medicine, as "you dont stop laughing because you grow old, you grow old because you stop laughing" !

Getting the blog more technical is not going to help many a reader. In fact, if one goes thru the previous comments, Vagaries had received requests to make it simpler to understand. As our regular reader Pavan says, readers come from a variety of fields, and want the blog simple and comprehensive.

2011-11-10T14:45:00.001+05:30

As-3 Northward Bound ! Weakening, but still at 1000 mb.

2011-11-09T22:59:00.003+05:30

AS-3 is almost stationary at 15.8N and 58.5E since the last 6 hrs, having moved very marinally a bit Northwards. As expected, it has weakened a bit to 1000 mb with winds at 30 knts. Vagaries expects further weakening as the system moves N/NW.

N-2 gets active in the North India:

Higher reaches of the Kashmir Valley, including those surrounding the Gulmarg resort (4.6 mms), received snowfall while parts of the region recorded light to moderate rains on Wednesday. Kashmir's Kupwara town recording the maximum 19.2 mm rainfall.

The Srinagar-Leh national highway, connecting the frontier Ladakh region with the rest of the state, was today closed for traffic following heavy snowfall at Zojilla Pass and Gumri.

The minimum temperature in Gulmarg on Wednesday was -2.3c, while Pahalgam received 1.6 mms with the minimum at 2.6c.

Srinagar had light rain today with the day's high at 12.5c and the low at 5.2c.

Srinagar received 1.1 mm rainfall and the tourist resort of Pahalgam received 1.6 mm rainfall.

As mentioned, N-2 effect was also felt in Pakistan, with some rain in Balochistan and Northern regions. Quetta got 6 mms, hill station Muree had 9 mms , Islamabad 6 mms overnight and traces of rain today in the day, with the temperature in the range of 24-13c.

Karachi was cloudy and hazy today, with the hight at 31c.Skies will start clearing by tomorrow evening(Thursday).The AS-3 clouding could bring light rainfall in the interiors of lower Sindh regions on Thursday.

N-2 was expected in Pakistan till Wednesday, and has moved away eastwards.

Nepal is enjoying fair and dry weather with winter temperatures taking a slow grip. Kathmandu was 27c today (Wednesday), with the night at a chilly 8.7c. Dadeldhura was in the 21-9c range today.

N-2 effect will be felt with light precipitation around Kathmandu during the weekend.

Seeing a relatively dry period for the next 4/5 days for T.N./Karnataka/Kerala regions. Unfortunately, the expected low (Vagaries November forecast) did not form. Do not see any meaningfull rains in the South next 4/5 days.

However, a low is forming just SW of Sri Lanka at 5N. May not deepen much, but will bring precipitation to Sri Lanka and extreme Southern India tip by the weekend.

Could this become the system estimated to emerge in the Arabian Sea?(Mentioned in Vagaries' November forecast for a system to form around 12th).

ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD... A 943mb storm roars into Alaska tearing off roofs, sends rushing water through coastal communities…

It’s a record breaking weather event…for detailed report see Mark’s Blog.

2011-11-08T22:09:00.005+05:30

Update 7.00am IST Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone 04A --AS-3---continues its Northward track. Earlier, Vagaries had mentioned it could curve Northwards after crossing the 13N latitude. Expected to track N/NW .

Position as on 5.30 am IST Wednesday shown below on JTWC track chart. Details of system mentioned in the chart..click here

x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------------x-------------------------x-----------------------x----------------------------x----------------------------------x----

Click here for larger image.

Storm Near Oman. Surge Maintained.

AS-3 moves N/NW and positioned at 14.4N and 58.4E on Tuesday night. Note, it has now taken a more Northerly track (see Sat. Image above) as estimated by Vagaries. Core pressure at 996 mb is constant and winds at 30 knts. A slight curvature of cloud formation is now also seen in the South of the system.

Southern Oman coast, and city of Salalah can expect squally weather with intermittent rains from tonite and on Wednesday. Muscat will be cloudy with light rains on Wednesday. I expect the system to move N/NW and weaken. Hence rainfall and stormy conditions will decrease in coastal Oman from Thursday.

Remnants clouding of AS-3 is now being pulled towards the east by the upper winds. Precipitation along this NE course in the Sea between the Oman and Pakistan coasts could be expected, and some rains along the Western region of Sindh coast from Thursday. As mentioned yesterday, Karachi was cloudy on Tuesday, and will continue to have cloudy weather on Wednesday, with light drizzle on Thursday.

2011-11-08T10:02:00.003+05:30

click here for larger view

Sudden Surge in As-3

After a brief weakening yesterday, AS-3 has shown a sudden intensification overnight on Tuesday morning. At 6.00 am ISt on Tuesday, the system is at 996 mb (previously 1005 mb) and with winds sharply rising to 30-40 knts. Designated number 04A given by NRL and otehr models.

It has tracked NW and is at 13.7N and 59.4E currently.

Rains expected on South Oman coast and Salalah today as the storm nears.Heavy rains in southern coastline of Oman.Muscat will also get increasing showers from Tuesday thru Thursday.

System could weaken rapidly within 48 hrs as it moves N/NW.

Upper winds spread the clouding towards the Kutch and Sindh coast.

2011-11-07T20:28:00.003+05:30

AS-3 on 7th November, at 13.2N and 60.4E. ( 8.00 pm IST Monday). Indicating a NW track heading towards Oman and gradually away from the Indian coasts.

However the system seems to have weakened as pressure now measured is 1005 mb, and winds are at 20 knts.

In a change of scene, due to "provocative" factors, the convection is now seen in the North of the system. As-3 will move NW and then curve Northwards for a short distance and weaken, before fizzling out off the North Oman coastline ( by Thursday at the most).

Winds at 200 mb could push upper clouds at that level towards the East over Sindh coast from Tuesday.Karachi would be cloudy on Tue/Wed.

Southern shores of Oman, and Salalah will start getting some rains from Wednesday. The rainfall may not be damaging, and will move up the coast on Wednesday/Thursday.

An effective W.D, N-1, is moving towards the sub-continent. Will be over the Northern regions of Pakistan by Monday night/Tuesday. Rainfall could be expected in the Northern plains of Pakistan and Balochistan areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow in the Northern mountains is also not ruled out.

Islamabad will get light rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the temperature range between 26-11c.

Cloudy effect on upper Sindh areas.

N-1 would be moving into India from Tuesday night/Wednesday. Precipitation is expected in Kashmir and H.P, with snow on the hills. Punjab and Haryana will get cloudy weather with light rains. Chandigarh will be cloudy on Tuesday and light rain is possible on Wednesday. Day will be around 27c.

Delhi will be cloudy on Wednesday with temperatures around 29c in the day. Fall in night temperatures after Thursday all over plains of North and NW India.

Pictures of N-1 clouding and rainy effect in Dubai on Monday sent by a reader (Priya) put up on Interactive Page. Rain to continue in Dubai on Tuesday.

Mumbai: Partly Cloudy/Hazy skies for Tuesday/Wednesday.

S'Cruz Temperature Forecast:

Tuesday: 34 - 22

Wednesday: 33 - 22

Thursday: 33 - 21

Friday/Saturday: 32 - 19/20.

Pune will be in the 31 - 16c range till Thursday. Friday I expect the nights to drop to 13c and Saturday to 12/13c.

2011-11-07T10:05:00.003+05:30

AS-3 on 7th November, at 11.7N and 63.3E. ( 6.00am IST Monday).

click here for larger view

Winds at 200 mb could push upper clouds at that level towards the North-East over Kutch and Sindh coast from Tuesday.

2011-11-06T21:51:00.004+05:30

IMD has declared the system AS-3 as a depression today. It is currently located at 10N and 65E, having been almost stationary (slight SW erratic track) last 6 hrs. Core pressure however steady at 1004 mb and same wind speed at 20-25 knts. Seems to be heading for Oman, as seems difficult it will cross the 12/13N latitude.

Northward movement towards Sindh possible if it crosses the 12/13N latitude

IMD also stated that -Quote" This system would not affect Indian coast." Well, our met. guys are forgetting the Lakshdweep Islands. There was heavy rain today as a result of the system with Amini Divi receiving 100 mms in 24 hrs on Sunday and Minicoy 56 mms in the same period.

Also as mentioned in Vagaries, Kerala and Karnataka coast received some rainfall on Sunday. In Kerala, Vadakara: 205 mms, Chittur: 92 mms, Mannarkad: 80 mms, Kupaddy: 60 mms, Alathur: 59 mms and Thiruvananthpuram got 17 mms, Kozhikode got 15 mms.

Naturally, lesser amounts in coastal Karnataka with Mangalore managing 11mms. S.I. Karnataka too has some rain with Agumbe getting 37 mms, and Bangalore getting 19 mms.

What now ? well AS-3 seems determined to take a West path. So, decreasing rainfall in Lakshdweep and coastal Karnataka ( the sun peeped out amidst clearing clouds in Mincoy by 5.30 pm ISt Sunday. Amini Divi though was overcast all day Sunday, with a thunderstorm at 2.30 pm on Sunday) .

Easterly currents will keep the precipitation on in Kerala (though reduced).

Oklahoma shakes by strongest earthquake ever recorded in state on Saturday night.

Bone-chilling cold brings harsh return of winter to European Russia…See International Page. Details from Our Partner Mark’s Blog.

2011-11-06T12:57:00.003+05:30

Sunday Blog:

After a NW movement as per last posting, AS-3 has moved due West in the last 6 hrs...from previous location of 10.8N / 67.5E to currently (12 noon IST Sunday) 10.7N / 65 E.....due West.

It seems this change of track from the expected NW track is due to the upper air 200 mb jet streams. These jet stream upper winds have markedly become due West below 15N (not very normal for Nov.) in the last 12 hrs. Even the 500 mb winds are supportive to the upper winds, and are flowing West below the 15N line. Surely influencing the movement of the system. AS-3 Pressure is at 1004 mb with 20-25 knts winds.

System could re-curve the track to NW if it is able to cross the 12/13N line. Otherwise, would maintain a Westerly track.

Resultantly seeing good cooling in the Central India region (M.P./Mah/Gujarat/N.I.Karnataka), and NW plains from early next week.

More on this in a later blog.

2011-11-05T13:28:00.002+05:30

Latest on AS-3:

The well marked low is currently ( 9.30 pm IST Saturday) at 10.8N and 67.5E, that is having moved NW in the last 6 hrs. Core pressure remains at 1006 mb, and winds are at 20-25 knts /hr. As mentioned, and seen in the sattellite image put up, the system shows convective clouds in the Western quadrant. Also seen is a weak developing spiral forming.

Expected track is N/NW, and precipitation can occur along the Kerala/Karnataka/Goa coastline. As the system tracks, we could see cloudy weather to some rain in S.Konkan from Monday.

In the North, weather will be dry. Day and night temperatures are expected to drop by a couple of degrees in North and NW India from Sunday. Delhi should see a minimum of 14/15c next 2 days, and Chandigarh and Amritsar will touch 11c with the day going below the 30c mark.

See International Page for latest U.S. West Coast Storm…

x-----------------------------------------x---------------------------------x------------x

AS-3 has tracked West in the last 12 hrs. Positioned currently (12.30 pm IST Saturday) at 9.7N and 68.7E, it has a core pressure of 1006 mb. Convective cloudings are seen in the West of the centre. Very mild and dis-organised spiral forming.

Track expected N/NW.

2011-11-04T23:21:00.001+05:30

Next Generation Climate and Weather Satellite Launched on 28th October 2011…Weather enthusiasts, please see till the end…

A new satellite that will test key technologies and instruments for the next generation of climate and weather-monitoring satelliteswas launched on Friday, Oct. 28, 2011. The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) mission has a planned liftoff from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California at 5:48 a.m. EDT/2:48 a.m. PDT.

“This is the first mission designed to provide observations for both weather forecasters and climate researchers and will provide data that is critical to climate research,” said Jim Gleason, NPP project scientist during a news briefing last week.

NPP is a collaborative effort between NASA and NOAA, and Gleason said NPP represents a critical first step in building the next-generation of Earth-observing satellites, and as it gathers new data it will test technologies for follow-on missions.

Gleason said people often confuse climate and weather.

“Climate is what happens over years and decades; the long term behavior and patterns,” he said, “which makes climate is what you expect, and weather is what you get from day to day.”

NPP contains a suite of five instruments that will make measurements of cloud, vegetation, and ice cover, ocean color, and sea and land surface temperatures.

The five instruments are the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS); the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS); the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES); the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS); and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS).

Data from NPP will be used to enhance their understanding of climate change. NOAA meteorologists will incorporate the data into their weather and climate prediction models to produce accurate, life-saving forecasts and warnings. Also NPP will help emergency responders monitor and react to natural disasters.

The NPP mission will help link the current generation of NASA Earth-observing satellites called the Earth Observing System (EOS) to a next-generation of operational polar-orbiting environmental satellites.

2011-11-03T20:32:00.003+05:30

AS-2 is hovering (skirting) along the coast line as this track chart (up t0 5.30 pm IST) shows. And weakening rapidly. Existing clouds over Gujarat and Kutch would clear by Friday. Clouding from AS-2 over Karachi would also disappear by Friday.

AS-3 position as on 5.30 pm IST Thursday: Low at 70E and 12.5N with core pressure at 1006 mb.

Expected to deepen by Friday and as mentioned earlier, move North initially. Rain for coastal Karnataka and some rains in Goa on Friday/saturday.

After reaching 15N, I would expect AS-3 to move NW and then possibly curve Northwards, heading for the Pakistan Sindh coastline.

No "firm" system coming from the Bay till the 8th/9th, when I expect a system to emerge (see Vagaries November forecast ). Till then rains will be scanty with isolated pockets of medium heavy rains in T.N.

After the moving away of AS-2, and whatever its effect on Mumbai, the heat has returned...Mumbai is now bearing up with the "November Heat "

Hottest in India on Thursday, 3rd November, was 36.4c at Vallabh Vidyanagar (Gujarat).

Mumbai was almost as high..marginally lower than being the hottest in India...Thursday's high was 36c at Colaba 4c above normal, and 35.9c at S'Cruz, 3c above.

The highest ever for November at S'Cruz is 37.4c in 1979, and 38.4c at Colaba in 1978.

Vagaries’ November Forecast has been added to the links on the right side of page for easy reference.

2011-11-02T09:14:00.005+05:30

Keila crosses the Oman coast at 16.30 IST on Wednesday.

click here for larger view

Now, repeating the term used in Vagaries, while tracking North along the coast, the cyclone will "skirt" the Oman coast, and weaken rapidly.

As per our estimate, some rainfall occurred Malakand, Karachi, Makran division

of Sindh on Tuesday night and Wednesday.Gawadar got 3 mms and Karachi traces.

Rain will occur along the coast, with Karachi getting some showers on Wednesday night and Thursday.

AS-3 has formed in the Southern Arabian Sea (bang on target date: 2nd November). At 1006mb, it will deepen and initially move North.

x--------------------------x------------------------x--------------------x-------x

Latest as at 10.00 am IST:

AS-2 now a cyclone: 03A. and IMD names it "Keila" in its 10 am IST bulletin. Positioned at 16.1N and 54.5E. Winds at 35 knts/65 kmph and should cross Oman coast south of Salalah by Wednesday. Core pressure at 996 mb. Heavy rains expected in Salalah and South Oman. Rain expected in Muscat again today.
The clouding spreading NE towards coastal Sindh has thickened to some extent.

2011-11-01T12:13:00.001+05:30

Forecast and Outlook of Major events for November:

Northern regions:

An effective W.D. around 20th. November will bring rain and snow to the Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal mountains.The plains of Punjab and Haryana could also get some rainfall with the coming of the W.D. Delhi could get its first winter rains from the W.D. after the 20th.

Temperature wise, normally the night temperatures drop at a faster rate in November, and the diurnal range is almost 15c.or more. After the middle of the month, the days will get cooler, and Srinagar may drop below freezing around the 15th of the month.

The mean minimums in Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana will be below 10c after the 15th.

West Coast:

Around the 2nd of November, a low forms in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. Most models predict a NW track. Vagaries estimates a Northerly track initially ,say up to the Karnataka coast (about 15N), and then move NW into the Arabian Sea.

Its precipitation effect will be maximum in Kerala and S.Coastal Karnataka.

Chances of another low pressure system forming in the Arabian Sea around the 12th of November seems possible. Tracking the route at this stage is not possible, as we will have to consider the meteorological factors affecting the system and their strength around that day. Even a passing W.D. could adversely change the course of a system in the seas. But, again, NW seems to be the natural course.

Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra have heated up abnormally in October, touching alsmot 40c in Gujarat. Except for a few days around the 20th of October, when night temperatures dropped in interior Mah, the clouding re-appeared, and temperatures shot up again.

Estimating the nights to go to the 15c region in interior Mah during the 1st week, and nights dropping in Gujarat after the 7th.

Mumbai's cooling now depends on the systems forming in the South Arabian sea. If the system moves as per the NW estimate, cooling is seen in Mumbai from the 5/6th.

South:

Vagaries' October forecast had estimated a "moderate to average NEM" after the setting phase.

NEM will continue to depend on "in situ" systems forming in the Bay. It seems a depression is likely to form in the South Bay around the 8th, and bound for the T.N. coast, and should cross around the 13th. Seems the entire coastal regions of T.N, South A.P. and interior T.N. will benefit. But, lets wait and see, the strength is important.

It should be borne in mind, that the MJO phase becomes weak after the 20th in the Indian Seas. One should remember that the ITCZ moves Southwards normally after the 15th of November.

Western and Central regions of Nepal will get the precipitation as a W.D. approaches the country from the west after the 20th. Would expect the temperatures to drop sharply after the passing of the W.D.

Northern regions of Pakistan will get precipitation as a W.D. moves east around the 20th. Punjab (Pakistan) can also get some rains. Subsequently, the actual drop in temperatures should be felt. Cooler NW winds post the W.D. would cool the upper Sindh region.

Coastal Sindh will get cloudy weather and rains for a couple of days around the 1st and 2nd, as AS-2 spreads its clouds towards the region. We will wait and watch, and track the movements of another low in the Arabian Sea, sometime around 3/4th November, and see how it can or may affect the region. May not have any effect as the movement should be NW.

These estimates are my personal views, and should not be depended upon for commercial uses. Reader's views and suggestions most welcome.

2011-10-31T20:24:00.002+05:30

Latest on AS-2:

Positioned at 10.0 pm IST, Monday, at 16N and 57.7E. Movement in last 6 hrs: NW.

IMD terms it as a depression, core pressure being at 1002 mb now. Winds maintained at 20 knts.

Clouding is thick and concentrated in the west of the system, over Oman. Expecting rains in Salalah and Oman coast up to Sur.

Easterly jet streams are bringing the upper and medium clouds due East over coastal Pakistan and into Gujarat. As estimated, rainfall will be dragged into coastal Pakistan on Tuesday.

Having a constant NW track, the clouding is apparently moved away from the Karnataka and Konkan coast (and away from Mumbai).

As explained in earlier blog, AS-2 will now move N and skirt the South coast of Oman, due to jet streams direction and wind shear, but as a weaker system. On skirting the Oman coast, it seems the system will weaken rapidly.

The pace of weakening will decide whether there will be consequent (light) precipitation in

Gujarat or not.

The Southern UAC which was, as per last posting, just South of the Southern tip of India, has moved NW as anticipated, and now lies over the South Arabian Sea Clouding accumulated along the Kerala coast and Southern tip is due to this system.

System will gain, and will be numbered when the system descends to a sea level low by Tuesday.

November Forecast for the Sub-Continent will be put up on Tuesday by 3 pm IST

US Latest

ONE FOR THE AGES
Northeastern US brought to standstill as tree limbs crash onto powerlines cutting power to millions.

Latest Count of Those Currently In the Dark: 2,765,883

Storm Highlights and latest video on Mark’s blog….

2011-10-30T12:16:00.003+05:30

Latest on AS-2: Updated 7.00pm IST Sunday.

Positioned at 6.00 pm IST, Sunday, at 14.7N and 58.9E. Movement in last 6 hrs : Slightly North.

Even though IMD terms it as a depression, being at 1006 mb now, after dropping to 1004 mb, its not gaining too much strength as such. Winds maintained at 20 knts.

Having a constant NW track, the clouding is apparently moving away from the Karnataka and Konkan coast (and away from Mumbai).

AS-2 will now move NW, and approach the South coast of Oman. As explained in earlier blog, may curve N later due to jet streams direction and wind shear, but as a weaker system. On skirting the Oman coast, it seems the system will weaken rapidly.

The Southern UAC is just South of the Southern tip of India. Clouding accumulated along the Kerala coast and Southern tip is due to this system.

System will gain, and will be numbered when the system descends to a sea level low by Tuesday. Expected to move NW, and cross into the Arabian Sea.

2011-10-29T23:04:00.002+05:30

Latest on AS-2: IMD declares its stature as a depression...Latest Pressure is at 1007 mb..rising.

Position at 10.30pm IST Saturday: 12.6N and 60.5E. So movement seen is westwards. Winds at peak 20 knts, hence reduced to some extent since last observation.

The overall swirl of clouding seems to have moved slightly west along with the centre of the system.

Vagaries expects the system to move NW and possibly curve to North after 36 hrs from now.

Precipitation to some extent expected along coastal Karnataka and Konkan on Sunday. After the curving, precipitation expected along Sindh (Pakistan ) coast from Tuesday.

Southern UAC maintains strength and position as on Saturday night.

Next update: Sunday noon with Forecast.

2011-10-29T11:56:00.004+05:30

Sat Image os AS-2 as on 11.30 am IST Saturday.

AS-2 has moved North in the last 6 hrs, and is positioned at 13.0N and 63.7E at 11.30 am IST. Still maintaining pressure at 1004 mb, the maximum winds are at 25 knts.

Its spiral is growing, and is now spread over a diameter of almost 1200 kms across the Arabian Sea, while the outer spiral is now covering a distance of almost 1800 kms !

Expected to move NW and then North. Due to the SST at 29c, and other factors, it now may deepen marginally, maybe up to 1000 mb at the most.

Coastal karnataka, Goa and Konkan should get rain on Saturday and Sunday as mentioned yesterday.

The UAC in the Gulf of Mannar has deepened. Expect very heavy rains in the regions mentioned last night. Keep a watch on this too !

2011-10-28T22:25:00.004+05:30

Yesterday we talked about AS-2 changing stature from today (Friday), and it has.

AS-2 has showed an erratic movement, and has moved due east in the last 6 hrs ! From 10.8N and 60.9E it has shifted to 10.6N and 64.5E (at 10.30 pm IST, Friday). Having deepened to 1004 mb, it has maximum winds at 25 knts in the Northern segment. The clouding around the system is now showing a swirl, and IMD expects the system to deepen more.

Vagaries forecasts a further deepening and a NW movement, initially, and then North.

Coastal Sindh (Pakistan) can get some precipitation in such a scenario (by Tuesday), depending on the movement of the system. The track and strength of AS-2 will be updated on Vagaries regularly.

The other low mentioned in Vagaries ( secondary low) yesterday is now positioned at 12.5N and 68E, just off the Karnataka coast, and also at 1004 mb.This low is embedded in the trough associated with AS-2.

Next update on AS-2 on Saturday, 29th, at 12.15 pm

UAC formed in the Gulf of Mannar. Heavy rains expected in the districts of Thoothukudi, Puddukotai, Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinam and Puducherry this weekend.

With no W.D.s expected, the Northern region is expected to be dry till Wednesday at least.

Night temperatures will drop by 2/3 c in Punjab and Haryana and Delhi.

Amritsar and Chandigarh are expected to have nights at 10/11c from Monday 31st. Delhi will see 13/14c by the 31st.

Mumbai Forecast for the weekend:

Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with light rains possible. Light showers could be expected in some parts. Temperature range: 33c-25c.

Potentially Major and Historic Snowstorm Aims at Populated Northeast U.S. on Saturday….

Is Northeast Snow in October a Rarity?

Those Interested See Mark’s Blog for an updated account.

2011-10-27T20:17:00.002+05:30

Happy New Year to all Readers.

AS-2, is almost stationary since the last 18 hrs. Situated in the Southern Arabian Sea, at 7.6N and 65E, its at around 1006 mb with 15 knts winds. Now, an extended trough running from the system has brought clouding into the adjacent west coast of India.

There is another low (1008 mb) embedded in the trough, just off the Karnataka cost.

For all practical purposes, we can say the clouding seen on Thursday in the Arabian Sea and along the South Konkan/Goa and Karnataka coast is associated with AS-2 and its associated secondary low.

AS-2 should change its stature from tomorrow, having been stagnant for almost a day now. Deepen a bit initially, and move North.

Now, almost all models show the system moving NW into Oman. I would wait. If the system takes the upper jet stream course (which normally they do), then, I would say it will first move NW, and then take a Northerly direction.

In that case, Coastal Sindh (Pakistan) may see some rain early next week.

Meanwhile, during the weekend, a vortex developing off the Southern T.N. coast will produce very heavy rains in the Puducherry region, alongwith very heavy rains in the Thoothukudi,

Puddukotai, Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinam districts on Saturday/Sunday.

Mumbai recorded a hight of 34.6c at Colaba and 36.3c on Thursday. Being partly cloudy, as predicted, the humidity was higher on Thursday at 60% (compared to 40% yesterday).

Pune was in the range of 31.7 - and 16.8c. The night temperatures for the next 2 nights will also be in the predicted range.

The forecast put for Mumbai and Pune on Wednesday remains valid (See Mumbai Page).

2011-10-26T13:40:00.003+05:30

Mumbai/Pune Forecast for next 3 days on Mumbai Page.

Some were asking me about the vagaries' predicted system (around 20th) in the Arabian Sea ?

Well, it seems, its here ! 95A forms in the South Arabian Sea ! Currently at 1006 mb, AS-2 has an extended trough towards the west coast if India. Its rain effect, already seen over the Karnataka and Goa coast, will be seen along the Karnataka coast and Goa on Wednesday and Thursday, and moving into South Konkan by Thursday.

GFS and a few International models show AS-2 going upto depression strength and moving NW towards Oman. If it moves away, precipitation along the coast will decrease.

2011-10-25T19:56:00.002+05:30

Greetings From Vagaries to All the Readers:

MAY THIS Diwali BRING LIGHT AND HAPPINESS IN YOUR LIFE !

WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DiwalI and Prosperous New Year.

Regards,
Rajesh.

Posting @ 10.15pm Tuesday, 25th.

Low pressure off the coast getting active and producing storms along Karnatak/Goa coast.

Massive thunderstorms underway in coastal Karnataka. Violent thunderstorm commences in Goa. Hail reported in Panjim.

2011-10-25T10:16:00.002+05:30

In the plains of the country, On Tuesday Morning (25th October), Ahmadnagar (Mah.) was at 12.1c, Pune dips to 12.6c,( Simla:11.7c, Just for info), Amritsar: 13.0c, Nasik :13.4c, Aurangabad: 16.5c, New Delhi: 17.6c and Mumbai S'Cruz 19.3c.

Low in the Arabian Sea at 1006 mb moves slightly North and remains off N.Karnataka coast on Tuesday morning.

Easterly wave bringing good precipitation to Chennai coast and T.N.

2011-10-24T13:33:00.001+05:30

IMD announces the setting of the NEM over T.N. and Kerala. SWM out of full country.

2011-10-24T01:03:00.001+05:30

UAC over East Arabian Sea off Kearala coast persisits, and Australian Bureau and Thai Met. show it as a sea level low off the Karnataka coast. A trough from this low extends towards the west coast, and could strengthen the low to some extent.

Precipitation expected in Kerala and coastal Karnataka next 2/3 days. If the trough remains and strengthens the low, could see some rain creeping up into Goa.

Expected Bay low seem to be evading !Though the UAC is persisting. Anyway, the up-coming Easterly Wave might just get the projected rain inflow onto the T.N coast.

Snowfall, first of this season, reported from Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Tangmarg on Saturday and Sunday. Last year, the first snow in the mid hills was on 13th November.

This weekend, all the higher reaches also got snow in Kashmir and H.P.

Sunday, 23rd October:Max Temperatures today:

Hottest in Asia: Makkah: 40c

Hottest in India on Sunday (23rd October):

Deesa, Idar and Surendranagar (Gujarat): 37.8c.

Mumbai Colaba: 36.6c

Mumbai S'Cruz: 36.2c.

Ratnagiri:36.4c

N.Delhi (SFD): 33c

Bangalore:30c.

Hottest in Pakistan: Mithi: 38c.

Karachi: 35c.

2011-10-22T22:14:00.001+05:30

The advent of the NEM has been delayed beyond our expectations this year.

Vagaries had predicted its advance by the 16th. on 1st October, taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM by the 12th etc. The SWM lingered on, and even today, on the 22nd, is still prevailing over Karnataka and T.N.

The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.Another factor are the jet streams. In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are prevailing west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late .

In my last report on the La-Nina, we have discussed that La-Nina is "on the threshhold" of forming..not yet established.There has been little change from then, as atmospheric indicators continue to hover around La Niña thresholds.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened over the past seven days, with a 30-day SOI value of +10.0 as on 16th October. Sustained SOI values above +8.0 can indicate La Niña events. Factors favour the formation of a La-Nina event within the next 30 days.

Anyway, the latest models show the MJO getting a bit stronger from next week (24th), and moving eastwards in the seas South of Sri Lanka, along the 8N line. Its only after 2nd November that the MJO is shown getting stronger (and more effective) in the entire Bay region.

A UAC today lies over South T.N. and adjoining Sri Lanka. This holds out hope of creating an Easterly wave, which can push a current, a NEM current, onto the T.N. coast initially, and then into the interiors and forcing the SWM "out".

Another system lies over the Lakshadweep Islands and the Kerala coast. IMD indicates this as a UAC. While the Thai Met Dept indicates it as a low at 1006 mb.